Forecast and levels for EURO - page 6

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.17 09:41

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 18 - June 25 (based on the article)

EUR/USD failed to move higher and eventually dropped after the Fed raised rates. Has the trend changed? The second round of the French Parliamentary elections and PMIs stand out. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German PPI: Tuesday, 6:00. This time, a drop of 0.1% is projected.
  2. Current Account: Tuesday, 8:00. A narrower surplus of 31.3 billion is expected.
  3. ECB Economic Bulletin: Thursday, 8:00. The ECB usually doesn’t provide big surprises in this bulletin, but the data can still move markets.
  4. Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 14:00. This time the score is expected to remain unchanged at -3.
  5. Flash PMIs: Friday, 7:00 for France, 7:30 for Germany and 8:00 for the whole euro-zone.
  6. Belgian NBB Business Climate: Friday, 13:00. A small improvement to -0.8 is predicted now.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.20 07:19

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: FOMC Member Evans Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-19 23:15 GMT | [USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks]

[USD - FOMC Member Evans Speaks] = Speech about current economic conditions and monetary policy at the New York University Money Marketeers event.

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From official report :

  • "As you know, the Committee voted to increase the target range for the federal funds rate to 1 to 1-1/4 percent. In the most recent Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant thought that appropriate policy would incorporate one more 25 basis point rate hike in 2017—bringing the total for this year to three—and then three more increases in each of 2018 and 2019. And as Chair Yellen stated in her press conference’s opening remarks, the Committee expects to begin gradually reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet sometime this year."
  • "It remains to be seen whether there will be two rate hikes this year, or three, or four—or exactly when we start paring back reinvestments of maturing assets. Regardless, the important feature is that the current environment supports very gradual rate hikes and slow preset reductions in our balance sheet."
  • "And given we may be facing more elevated ZLB risks for some time, risk-management considerations argue for tilting toward accommodative policies that help reduce the risk of returning to the ZLB."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by China Industrial Output news event



 

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EUR/USD NEWS

Dinesh Biswas, 2017.06.20 12:32

The Euro broke sharply lower after prolonged consolidation near the 1.12 figure against the US Dollar, hinting that a near-term trend reversal may be in the works. The turn came against a backdrop of deepening negative RSI divergence, which seems to bolster the case for downside follow-through.

From here, a daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1125 opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 1.1019. Alternatively, a move back above the 14.6% Fib at 1.1190 – now recast as resistance – paves the way for another challenge of the June 2 high at 1.1285.

Risk/reward considerations argue against entering a short position: the available trading range is too narrow relative to ATR and prices are sitting squarely at support. With that in mind, opting for the sidelines seems sensible for now until a better-defined opportunity presents itself.

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EUR/USD Pattern Points Higher

Dinesh Biswas, 2017.06.20 12:43

In today’s US Opening Bell webinar, we discussed technical Elliott Wave patterns on key markets for this week. Some key markets we analyzed include  Industrial Average and how the pattern appears to be near a potential pivot point. This pattern favors a turn lower from nearby levels for a dip back towards 20,200.

  EUR/USD trades sideways in a consolidation fashion. An analyst pick was published on this market today in that we favor buying in the 1.10 to 1.11 price zone for an eventual break higher.

Thanks


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.23 09:59

EUR/USD - Brexit is "huge mistake" and  minimizing negative impact; daily price is on bullish ranging near bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within the narrow support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1212 resistance located in the beginning of the bullish trend to be resumed with 1.1299 nearest daily bullish target, and
  • 1.1118 support level located on the border between the primary bullish and the ranging bearish trend on the chart.

If the price breaks 1.1118 support to below on daily close bar so the bearish reversal will be started with the ranging way: the price will be inside Ichimoku cloud with 1.0922 target for the fully bearish reversal.


  • "The European Central Bank will decide to wind down its government bond purchases based on inflation even if the spreads for any country would rise as a consequence, ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet said."
  • "Heavily indebted Eurozone countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal risk facing rising borrowing costs once the ECB starts winding down its EUR 2.3 trillion asset purchase scheme."
  • "Regarding Brexit, Praet called it a "huge mistake" and stressed that it was extremely important that an agreement is reached between the UK and the European Union."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.23 18:33

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. New Home Sales and range price movement 

2017-06-23 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous months. 

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From rttnews article :


  • "New home sales in the U.S. rebounded in May after a sharp pullback in the previous month, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Friday. The Commerce Department said new home sales climbed by 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 610,000 in May from the upwardly revised April rate of 593,000."
  • "The Commerce Department also said the median sales price of new houses sold in May was $345,800, up 11.5 percent from $310,200 in April and up 16.8 percent from $296,000 in the same month a year ago."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. New Home Sales news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.24 09:04

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, June 25 - July 02 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under pressure as the dollar enjoyed some gains. Has the pair turned down? The last week of June features an important German survey and key inflation data.


  1. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. 
  2. French CPI: Tuesday, 6:45. 
  3. French Consumer Spending: Wednesday, 6:45. 
  4. Monetary data: Wednesday, 8:00. 
  5. Italian CPI: Wednesday, 9:00. 
  6. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. 
  7. Spanish CPI: Thursday, 7:00. 
  8. German CPI: Thursday: German states release the data throughout the morning, and the all-German number is at 12:00. 
  9. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55. Germany enjoys a growing economy and falling unemployment. The number of the unemployed fell by 9K in April. The data for May is expected to show a similar drop.
  10. CPI: Friday, 9:00. Headline inflation stood at 1.4%.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.27 15:09

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speaks and range price movement 

2017-06-27 09:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = Speech at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal. 

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From official report :

  • "The first is confidence that monetary policy is effective and the transmission process will work. All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area. Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones."
  • "While there are still factors that are weighing on the path of inflation, at present they are mainly temporary factors that typically the central bank can look through. However, a considerable degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation dynamics to become durable and self-sustaining. So for us to be assured about the return of inflation to our objective, we need persistence in our monetary policy."
  • "And, finally, we need prudence. As the economy picks up we will need to be gradual when adjusting our policy parameters, so as to ensure that our stimulus accompanies the recovery amid the lingering uncertainties."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event


 

EUR/USD - medium-term bullish breakout; monthly bear market rally; 1.1346 is the key

H1 intra-day price is on bullish breaout for 1.1346 resistance level to be testing to above for the bullish trend to be continuing:


H4 price is on bullish breakout as well with 1.1346 key resistance level:


Daily price is on bullish breakout ti be started on open D1 bar. If the price breaks 1.1346 level to above on daily close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing with possible breakout:


Weekly price is breaking 1.1291 resistance and on testing 1.1346 resistance to above for the bullish breakout to be started for the next week on ths timeframe for example:


Anyway, the monthly EUR/USD price is still on the bearish area of the chart below Ichimoku cloud. If the price breaks 1.1346 resistance level to above on close monthly bar so the local uptrend as the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition will be started with 1.1734/1.2166 bullish reversal levels on the visible horizon in this case:


 


By the way, the Yearly Central Pivot was already broken by the price to above in the beginning of May this year with the first pivot resistance at 1.1613 as a nearest target to re-enter, so the long-term bullish situation for EUR/USD pair is the matter of time in this case.


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