Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for EUR/USD - page 5

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.20 14:49

EURUSD technical Outlook - bearish ranging within Fibo levels (based on the article)

Daily price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA in the bearish area of the chart for the ranging between Fibo support level at 1.0521 and Fibo resistance level at 1.0828.
If the price breaks 1.0521 support so the primary bearish trend will be resumed, if the price breaks 1.0828 resistance so the secondary rally will be started, otherwise - ranging.
  • "A sharp Euro recovery stalled at a familiar chart barrier below the 1.07 figure, hinting that a corrective bounce from a monthly low may have been exhausted. Near-term positioning has favored the downside since prices broke through the floor of a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern two weeks ago."
  • "Near-term support is in the 1.0518-28 area (November 24 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a daily close below that exposing the 1.0341-67 zone (December 15 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a push above support-turned-resistance at 1.0682 opens the door for a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828."

 

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EUR/USD to retest resistance line

Cuong Truong, 2017.02.24 22:32

It looks like a fake break out after all. The central bank is keeping the price of their USD up.
The price of EUR/USD will most likely retest that resistance line. I don't think it will hold, the price will then continues to drop to retest that support line.

  bollinger trend pro


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.25 07:25

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, February 26 - March 05 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a relatively balanced week, dipping to the downside but never going too far. The upcoming week is packed with PMI data, inflation figures and more. Will the pair move decidedly to one direction or another? 


  1. Spanish Flash CPI: Monday, 8:00.
  2. Monetary data: Monday, 9:00. Similar numbers are expected.
  3. French CPI: Tuesday, 7:45.
  4. French GDP: Tuesday, 7:45. This is a revision for Q4 data.
  5. CPI (flash): Tuesday, 10:00.
  6. Manufacturing PMIs: Wednesday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final French number at 8:50, final German figure at 8:55 and the final euro-zone score at 9:00.
  7. German unemployment change: Wednesday, 8:55. The No. 1 economy in the euro-zone enjoys a strong jobs markets.
  8. German CPI: Wednesday morning from the various states, with the all-German figure coming out at 13:00.
  9. Spanish Unemployment Change: Thursday, 8:00.
  10. Unemployment rate: Thursday, 10:00. Similar to Spain, the unemployment rate for the euro-zone is improving, but remains high, standing at 9.6% in December. This was better than expected.
  11. PPI: Thursday, 10:00.
  12. Services PMIs: Friday morning: 8:15 for Spain, 8:45 for Italy, the final French number at 8:50, final German figure at 8:55 and the final euro-zone score at 9:00.
  13. Retail Sales: Friday, 10:00.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.27 15:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is -0.5%
  • forecast data is 1.6%
  • actual data is 1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article:

  • "The report said durable goods orders jumped by 1.8 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.8 percent in December."
  • "Excluding a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.2 percent in January following a revised 0.9 percent advance in December."

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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NZD/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.28 15:43

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Brent Crude Oil: U.S. GDP Second Release

2017-02-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.9%
  • forecast data is 2.1%
  • actual data is 1.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.5 percent." 
  • "The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 1.9 percent." 

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EUR/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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Brent Crude Oil M5: 19 range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.02 11:33

EUR/USD - daily bearish trend to be started with 1.0493 support level (based on the article)

Daily price broke Senkou Span line which is the border of the Ichimoku cloud the the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is trying to test 1.0493 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0324 daily bearish target.


  • "Euro sellers have struggled to maintain downward momentum since the single currency found support below the 1.06 figure against the US Dollar two weeks ago. Still, overall positioning continues to favor continuation of the long term down trend."
  • "From here, a daily close below support in the 1.0518-28 area (November 24 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 1.0341-67 zone (December 15 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn above support-turned-resistance at 1.0682 paves the way for a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.03 11:38

Trading News Events: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (adapted from dailyfx)


  • "The recent batch of hawkish Fed rhetoric have moved interest-rate expectations, with Fed Fund Futures now pricing a greater than 70% probability for a March rate-hike, and the central bank may stay on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ With that said, signs of stronger service-based activity may encourage Fed Chair Janet Yellen to join her colleagues and endorse a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy with the central bank head scheduled to speak ahead of the blackout period. However, a downtick in business sentiment may push Chair Yellen to tame interest rate expectations as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance,’ and the central bank head may continue to promote a wait-and-see approach as ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices.’"
  • "Nevertheless, the slowdown in private-sector lending accompanied by the recent slump in building activity may drag on the U.S. service-sector, and a dismal ISM print may undermine the recent advance in the greenback as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation."


Bullish USD Trade: Gauge for Service-Based Activity Beats Market Expectations

  • "Need a red, five-minute candle subsequent to the release to favor a short EUR/USD position."
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position."
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  • "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Disappoints

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle to encourage a long EUR/USD position."
  • "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse."

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 09:17

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 05 - March 12 (based on the article)

EUR/USD struggled but eventually chose the lower end of the range, due to USD strength. Will it totally break down or drift back up? The big event of the week is undoubtedly the ECB decision, which also consists of new forecasts.


  1. Retail PMI: Monday, 9:10.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
  3. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. The volatile indicator is not likely to repeat the big bounce.
  4. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 10:00.
  5. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
  6. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:45.
  7. Rate decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. Draghi would prefer to keep the euro low and not to talk about tapering or ending QE. The ECB currently buys 80 billion euros per month, but the amount will be reduced to 60 billion from April and set to run until the end of the year. See the full ECB preview: acknowledging reality or playing it down?
  8. German Trade Balance: Friday, 7:00.
  9. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.06 18:29

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Factory Orders and range price movement 

2017-03-06 15:00 GMT | [USD - Factory Orders]

  • past data is 1.3%
  • forecast data is 1.1%
  • actual data is 1.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.

==========

From rttnews article:

  • "The Commerce Department said factory orders climbed by 1.2 percent in January after jumping by 1.3 percent in December. The increase in orders matched economist estimates."
  • "The report said orders for non-durable goods also rose by 0.4 percent in January after spiking by 3.4 percent in the previous month."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Factory Orders news event

‌


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.07 13:05

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Factory Orders and range price movement 

2017-03-07 07:00 GMT | [EUR - German Factory Orders]

  • past data is 5.2%
  • forecast data is -2.5%
  • actual data is -7.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Factory Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers.

==========

From official report:

  • "Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reports that price-adjusted new orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 7.4% on December 2016. For December 2016, they increased by 5.2% compared with November 2016, thus confirming the provisional result published in the previous month. Price-adjusted new orders without major orders in manufacturing had decreased in January 2017 a seasonally and working-day adjusted 2.9% on December 2016."
  • "In January 2017, domestic orders decreased by 10.5% and foreign orders by 4.9% on the previous month. New orders from the euro area were down 7.8% on the previous month, new orders from other countries decreased 2.9% compared to December 2016."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Factory Orders news event


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