Press review - page 521

[Sergey Golubev]

Some more about volume (it was the question about it on one thread today:

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.24 08:51

Forex Market Size (based on this article)

• The Forex market is the largest and most liquid market in the world.
• The US dollar makes up the majority of Forex transactions
• The Forex market’s deep liquidity is advantageous to traders by allowing them to enter and exit the market instantaneously

According to the Bank for International Settlements, foreign-exchange trading increased to an average of $5.3 trillion a day. To put this into perspective, this averages out to be $220 billion per hour. The foreign exchange market is largely made up of institutional investors, corporations, governments, banks, as well as currency speculators. Roughly 90% of this volume is generated by currency speculators capitalizing on intraday price movements.

Unlike the stock and futures market that are housed in central physical exchanges, the Foreign exchange market is an over-the-counter market, decentralized market completely housed electronically. Banks from Hong Kong to Zurich and from London to New York. Though most investors are familiar with the stock market, they are unaware how small in volume it is in relation to the Forex market.

As the most traded currency, the US dollar makes up 85% of Forex trading volume. At nearly 40% of trading volume, the euro is ahead of the third place Japanese yen that takes almost 20%. With volume concentrated mainly in the US Dollar, Euro and Yen, Forex traders can focus their attention on just a handful of major pairs. In addition, the greater liquidity found in the Forex market is conducive to long, well-defined trends that respond well to technical analysis and charting methods.

[Sergey Golubev]

Gold - weekly ranging within the cloud; 1295 level is the key (based on the article)

Weekly price is on ranging within Ichimoku cloud within 1295/1214 levels waiting for the direction of the bullish reversal to bestarted or to the bearish trend to be resumed.

• "Gold prices appear to be grinding sideways in an Elliott Wave triangle. Currently, the range boundary on gold prices are locked between $1214 and $1295. "
• "Though an immediate break above $1295 cannot be ruled out since the larger trend is incomplete, we think gold prices continue to chop sideways to finalize the triangle pattern first."

[Alain Verleyen]

Exclusive: MetaQuotes Working on a New Business Development Platform

The platform is expected to be focused on matching advertisers and websites

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

The US dollar managed to recover in the last full week of May. As the page turns into June, we have a buildup to the Non-Farm Payrolls, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation figure. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.

1. US Core PCE Price Index: Tuesday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.1% is expected. 
2. CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A small drop to 120.1 is on the cards.
3. Euro-zone inflation figures: Wednesday, 9:00.
4. Canadian GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. We now get the monthly figure for March which carries expectations for 0.3%.
5. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 1:45. A score of 50.2 is expected now.
6. US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Thursday, 12:15.
7. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. After standing at 234K, a tick up to 239K is expected.
8. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 14:00. A similar score of 54.7 is on the cards.
9. Crude Oil inventories: Thursday, 15:00.
10. US Non-Farm Payrolls: Friday, 12:30. Expectations stand at 186K, an unemployment rate of 4.4% once again and a rise of 0.2% in hourly wages after 0.3% last month.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

EUR/USD had a positive week in general, rising as prospects continue looking better in the euro-zone in comparison to the US. The upcoming week features preliminary inflation figures and PMIs. 

1. Monetary data: Monday, 8:00. A small deceleration to 5.2% is on the cards.
2. Mario Draghi talks: Monday, 13:00. The President of the ECB will testify in front of the European Parliament and could provide some insights about the next moves of his institution.
3. German Import Prices: Tuesday, 6:00. A bounce worth 0.2% is predicted now.
4. French Consumer Spending: Tuesday, 6:45. A rise of 0.8% is predicted.
5. French GDP: Tuesday, 6:45.
6. Spanish Flash CPI: Tuesday, 7:00.
7. German CPI: Tuesday, with the German states publishing their data during the morning. The all-German preliminary CPI is released at 12:00.
8. German Retail Sales: Wednesday, 6:00. A quicker rise of 0.4% is now expected.
9. French CPI: Wednesday, 6:45.
10. German Unemployment Change: Wednesday, 7:55. A fall of 15K was seen in March and now a similar slide of 14K is on the cards.
11. CPI (preliminary): Wednesday, 9:00.
12. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 9:00. Another small slide to 9.4% is on the cards now.
13. Manufacturing PMIs: Thursday morning: 7:15 for Spain, 7:45 for Italy, 7:50 for the final French figure, 7:55 for the final German number and finally the final all-European update at 8:00.
14. Spanish Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:00. A drop of 129.3K was seen in April and another big slide of 110.2K is on the cards for May.
15. PPI: Friday, 9:00. A fall of 0.3% was seen last month and a bounce of 0.2% is predicted now.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

GBP/USD dropped sharply last week, dropping 230 points. The pair closed at 1.2781, its lowest weekly close in four weeks. This week’s key events are Manufacturing and Construction PMIs. 

1. BRC Shop Price Index: Tuesday, 23:01.
2. GfK Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 23:01. The estimate for May stands at -8 points.
3. Net Lending to Individuals: Wednesday, 8:30. The downward trend is expected to continue, with an estimate of GBP 4.5 billion.
4. Nationwide HPI: Thursday, 6:00. The markets are expecting better news in May, with an estimate of 0.2%.
5. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 8:30. The forecast for April stands at 56.5 points.
6. 10-y Bond Auction: Thursday, Tentative. 
7. Construction PMI: Friday, 8:30. The markets are expecting a slight dip in April, with an estimate of 52.7 points.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly AUD/USD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

AUD/USD was unchanged last week, closing at 0.7439. This week’s key events are Private Capital Expenditures and Retail Sales.

1. Building Approvals: Tuesday, 1:30. The markets are expecting a strong rebound in the April report, with a forecast of +3.2%.
2. Private Sector Credit: Wednesday, 1:30. The estimate for the upcoming release is 0.4%.
3. AIG Manufacturing Index: Wednesday, 23:30. 
4. Private Capital Expenditure: Thursday, 1:30. The indicator is expected to improve in Q1, with an estimate of 0.3%.
5. Retail Sales: Thursday, 1:30. The markets are expecting better news in the March report, with a gain of 0.3%.
6. Commodity Sales: Thursday, 6:30.
7. HIA New Home Sales: Friday, 1:00. This indicator provides a snapshot of the strength of the housing market. The indicator has not posted a gain above 0.2% this year. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly USD/CAD Outlook: 2017, May 28 - June 04 (based on the article)

The Canadian posted gains for a second straight week, as USD/CAD lost 80 points. The pair closed the week at 1.3440. This week’s key event is GDP.

1. Current Account: Tuesday, 12:30. The deficit for Q1 is expected to rise to C$11.4 billion.
2. RMPI: Tuesday, 12:30. This index measures inflation in the manufacturing sector. The indicator continues to weaken and came in at -1.6% in March, a sharper drop than expected.
3. GDP: Wednesday, 12:30. The March estimate stands at 0.3%.
4. Manufacturing PMI: Thursday, 13:30. 
5. Trade Balance: Friday, 12:30. Little change is predicted for the April release, with a forecast of C$0.0 billion.
6. Labor Productivity: Friday, 12:30. The estimate for Q1 stands at 0.2%.

[Sergey Golubev]

Comments that do not relate to this topic, have been moved to "spam".

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-05-30 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

• past data is -10.3%
• forecast data is 3.2%
• actual data is 4.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

==========

From official report:

• "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.1% in April and has risen for three months."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 4.4% in April following a fall of 10.3% in the previous month."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Building Approvals news event

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AUDUSD, M5, 2017.05.30

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