Follow The Bouncing Pip - page 260
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I tried version 23 with multiple timeframes - backtest 1 month bad!
David
bouncing pips is like sweet dream of predictable zig zag that will turn sour
universal sign that got longer term pips with 80% accuracy and personal statistics should be our ultimate goal
will be hard, not to imagine that we could do hocus pocus though
i.e. we believe we won't miss a car crash by stare
i.e. we could BECOME the repaint indicator ourselves , over-fitting and continue doubting
in one hand, we are the krusty krab that worry about the ZZ bouncing pips ($)
while
on the other hand, we know krusty krab burger business is LOW Cost (pip spread) , big profit (bank will take first tier of sure profit, while the broker take the second tier of volatility profit -- few minutes 30 pip , could your brain react that fast, historical candles could be misleading ), we overfit the template with our stubborn hocus pocus belief of next move while we don't spend time to see which Universal Signal got 80% to 90% correctness for sure, and which burger price level is the right level that attract potential profit
Accounting principles
fx can only be profitable IF and only IF
-- overall profit (minus pip spread 3 to 10 pips per trans) MINUS overall loss --- Greater
--- Personal Statistics Certainty on Certain indicator SIGN >> fearful clueLess Lost (it is a zero sum game , so , you have to get his right to about 80 /20, otherwise, no chance to break even for sure )
do you think you have the forecasting indicator and consistent SIGN that it Takes to win these rugby directional game
still not sure what to make of this system.
what happened to the system creator??
Most of these indicators I'm already familiar with, esp. the Zigzag indicators. They should never be used alone, as they only tell you that we are making new highs / lows. .
Bear never said to use Zigzag on it's own.
I've decided not to run this with the EA, but to run it manually. I really prefer to live test instead of demo anyway, and I don't use an MT4 broker.
Anyone interested in these types of systems must understand, you can use whatever you like to indicate overbought / oversold conditions. But the market doesn't care, and when its on a tear in one direction, you have to wait for some signs of reversal. The more you wait, the more sure you can be that it IS a reversal, but also you will miss more and more of the move in the opposite direction. Good old price action is a good indicator when the market is exhausting itself, and a pin bar on top of a Zigzag arrow is a great sign.
We are not picking tops and bottoms with this. Zigzag is saying the market MIGHT reverse. Then, you have to use something else to confirm that it DID reverse. Zigzag will never tell you that until it's way too late and the trade is halfway over.
I'd also like to point out that the two major posters on this thread, Bigbear and Forex11, used different methods to confirm a reversal. Bigbear liked to look at multiple time frames to make up his mind. Forex11 likes to use multiple oscillators and other indicators to confirm his entry. Both were profitable.
Anyway, once I have my setup to where I can trade this in the evening (I am on EST in the U.S) then I'll post some trades that I took. Should be interesting. I'm still trying to see whether 4H or 1H timeframes will fit my style better.
I tried version 23 with multiple timeframes - backtest 1 month bad! David
First of all, you don't have the latest version of the EA. Its version 42. See page 153 for this.
Secondly, Bigbear said not to backtest - you won't get real results since the ZigZag pointers always repaint until they match price reversals. If anything, your backtest results would be much better than reality.
Reversal is not as easy topic
first, you can't think of reversal -- this is the easiest mistake that everybody made
but in 5M or 30M , there could be good reversal indicator esp these days -- the market got a lot of M and W shape
ZZ , stochastic and RSI -- many got repaint issue
so my solution is like this == when then market got extra-long line, reversal is happening , and swing would be hard ( no repaint issue)
but when it is out of that extra long dot dot line, it will be a bit too late to enter
and depend on market hours of consolidation too , between late US and early european hours is better
here is my dig -- you could find lot of complimentary indicator to show U-turn signal (before and after) if you research into it
xx3xxx,
Thanks for your words on this. Very insightful.
All I can do is try the system out with some basic filters, and see how it does in today's market. I agree, today's market is not the same as in 2007 when the system was popular, so we'll see.
I won't ask you for more filters ( or U-turn indicators as you said ) for the time being. I need to get comfortable with it first. But I'm willing to use it for a month and see.
Edit: One other thing I wanted to mention - I have a little more trading experience than my username / post count shows. I came to Forex-TSD after I could not reach ForexFactory from work. I am "Pidgeon" on FF, and now that's not blocked from work I post there as well. Hmmm - wonder if this method has been discussed there??