Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for USD/JPY - page 2

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USD/JPY: intra-day bearish breakdown

H4 price is located below 200 SMA/100 SMA in the bearish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 115.25 resistance level to below to be reversed back to the bearish with 113.44 support level to be crossing for the bearish trend to be continuing.

Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish breakdown, and iTrend indicator os above the level for 'sell trend' to be continuing.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 11:18

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 05 - February 12 (based on the article)



Rate decision in Australia and New Zealand, US Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Consumer Sentiment and Canadian employment data. These are the highlights of this week.



  1. Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 03:30.
  2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Economists expect new claims will reach 249,000 this week.
  5. Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30.
  6. US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Friday, 15:00.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.04 16:29

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "JGB yields may accelerate upward if this happens, intensifying the BOJ vs. markets standoff. With that in mind, the Yen’s path in the week ahead is as likely to be decided in Washington, DC as it is in Tokyo. A relatively quiet week on the relevant economic data front offers few distractions, leaving simmering market tensions to their own devices."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.13 08:45

USD/JPY Intra-Day Fundamentals: Japan Gross Domestic Product and 27 pips range price movement

2017-02-12 23:50 GMT | [JPY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From japantimes article:

  • "The world’s third-largest economy grew 0.2 percent in the last quarter, from the previous quarter, according to preliminary data, the slowest pace for the year. Quarterly growth peaked at 0.6 percent in the first quarter of 2016 and slowed from that rate."
  • "Japan’s economy expanded at a slightly slower than expected 1.0 percent annual pace in 2016, helped by an uptick in exports, the Cabinet Office reported Monday."

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USD/JPY M5: 27 pips range price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.18 16:37

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "The 2017 FOMC voting members (Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governor Jerome Powell) schedule to speak in the week ahead may strike a similar tone to Chair Yellen, and the fresh rhetoric may do little to alter the interest rate outlook as Fed Fund Futures continue to highlight limited expectations for a March rate-hike, with market participants still pricing a greater than 60% probability for a move in June. The FOMC Minutes may share a similar and fail to prop up the greenback as officials expect ‘the evolution of the economy to warrant further gradual increases in the federal funds rate,’ and more of the same rhetoric may produce range-bound conditions in the exchange rate, with the pair with the pair at risk of giving back the advance from earlier this month as risk appetite abates."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.25 07:16

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 26 - March 05 (based on the article)

Durable Goods Orders, GDP data from the US, Australia, and Canada, US Consumer Confidence, Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims and rate decision in Canada. These are the main events on forex calendar.



US Durable Goods Orders: Monday, 13:30. Durable Goods Orders are expected to climb 1.6% while core orders are expected to gain 0.5%.

  1. US GDP data: Tuesday, 13:30. US GDP growth is expected to reach 2.1% in the fourth quarter.
  2. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. Consumer moral is expected to register 111.1 in January.
  3. Australian GDP data: Wednesday, 0:30. Economists expect the Australian economy will grow by 0.7% in the fourth quarter.
  4. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 15:00. The BoC upwardly revised its 2017 GDP outlook to 2.1%, despite the strong Canadian dollar weighing on exporters as well as concerns over US trading policy.
  5. US ISM Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:00. Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 56.1 this time.
  6. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  7. Canadian GDP: Thursday, 13:30. Analysts expect a growth rate of 0.3% in December.
  8. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. The number of claims is expected to inch up to 245,000 this week.
  9. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 15:00. US services sector is expected to reach 56.6 in February.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.26 11:26

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "The big item on the calendar for next week is January CPI, set to be released on Thursday evening (Friday morning in Asia, Europe). Due to the uniqueness of the Japanese economy, the bank follows a few different gauges of importance. There is the ‘all items’ index, which is basically just headline CPI, including all relevant products in the followed basket. But Core CPI in Japan (this is what the BoJ targets) includes Oil products while stripping out the more volatile fresh food items. And then there is the ‘All items, less food and energy’ (this would be similar to a traditional ‘Core CPI’ reading from another economy in Europe or the United States). The expectation for next week’s CPI read is that we’ll finally see Core CPI flatten out after declining for 10 consecutive months, further adding fuel to that recent theme of improvement that’s helped Mr. Kuroda take a slightly less-dovish stance to markets. A Core inflationary read anywhere above 0% will likely stoke additional Yen-strength, as bets for more monetary stimulus further price-out of Japanese markets."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 08:51

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 05 - March 12 (based on the article)

Rate decision in Australia and the Eurozone, Employment data from Canada and the US including the ADP report followed by the all-important NFP release.


  • Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA monitors the recent increase in lending to property investors and further data about the economy’s performance to determine its next move.
  • US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15.
  • US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  • Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The head of the central bank Mario Draghi said the Eurozone economy is stronger, but still fragile and requires more time to rebound. Therefore monetary stimulus may still be raised if required.
  • US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Following the positive condition in the labor market together with rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.
  • Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. 
  • US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. Economists expected an increase of 170,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7%. 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.04 11:35

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "However, Chair Yellen concluded that ‘a gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate,’ and it seems as though the central bank may tame the broader outlook for monetary policy as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up, on net, in recent months, although they remain low.’ With Fed officials scheduled to release their updated projections in March, the fresh estimates may reflect minor changes to the growth and inflation forecast, but a further reduction in long-run Fed Fund forecast may drag on market expectations and undermine the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the bar remains high for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move away from its easing-cycle as inflation remains well below the 2% target, and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish outlook at the March 16 interest rate decision as the Balance of Payment (BoP) report is anticipated to show a trade deficit in January. The deviating paths for monetary policy continues to instill a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY, and the BoJ looks poised to further expand its balance sheet as the central bank pledges to keep the 10-year yield around zero."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.09 16:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Jobless Claims

2017-03-09 13:30 GMT | [USD - Unemployment Claims]

  • past data is 223K
  • forecast data is 239K
  • actual data is 243K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Unemployment Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

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From business-standard article:

  • "The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week rebounded from a near 44-year low, but the labor market continues to tighten amid a sharp drop in job cuts in February."
  • "Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended March 4, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised at 223,000, the lowest level since March 1973."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events


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USD/JPY M5: 44 pips range price movement by U.S. Jobless Claims news events



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