USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Retail Sales and 60 pips price movement
2016-04-22 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
USD/CAD M5: 60 pips price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI and 24 pips price movement
2016-04-22 13:45 GMT | [USD - Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
"At 50.8 in April, down from 51.5 in March, the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) signalled the weakest upturnin overall business conditions since September 2009. The flash PMI index, which is based on approximately 85% of usual monthly survey replies, was only marginally above the crucial 50.0 no-change threshold."
EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI news event
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "There is no doubt that the 1Q GDP reading due Thursday will be
capable of stoking serious volatility, but its influence may further
prove more systemic. Relative growth and stability is increasingly important to the distribution of global funds.
If the United States’ looks more robust, it will draw capital from
faltering Eurozone and Japanese markets; while stability will encourage
funds from China and the emerging markets. It should be mentioned that
speculation for this data is very scattered. The Atlanta Fed’s forecast
was 0.1 percent, the New Fed’s new forecast set it at 1.1 percent and
the economists’ consensus is for 0.6 percent annualized growth."
USD/JPY - "The one thing that is certain is that the Yen
is primed for volatility. The prevailing trend is and has been one of
Yen strength, and all factors held equal, this wouldn’t be an outlandish
expectation for the next couple of weeks. But given this morning’s
report, which obviously came from someone very close to the Bank of
Japan’s discussions, anything can happen when the BoJ meets next week.
And just as we saw when the ECB enacted such a policy, it would be
impossible to say definitively that the Yen would strengthen or weaken
on the back of such an announcement."
USD/CNH - "The probability of PBOC cutting RRR after the
Fed’s next meeting on April 27th is high. The Fed will determine
whether to raise US benchmark rates at this meeting, and the probability
of the Fed increasing rates in the April meeting is 0% and for June is
currently showing at 15.4% based on Fed Funds futures. The Yuan’s
appreciation against the US Dollar over the past two weeks has helped to
slow down the pace of capital flowing out of China."
NZD/USD - "At the end of last week, the ratio of long to
short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.22 as 55% of traders are
long. Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 17.4% above
levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.2% lower than yesterday and 25.6% below levels seen last week."
AUD/USD - "Thus far, sales and earnings have topped
analysts’ estimates by 0.27 and 4.03 percent respectively, with 130 of
the companies included in the benchmark S&P 500
index reporting. Lackluster results may sour confidence and punish
high-yielding FX alongside share prices, sending the Aussie lower.
Needless to say, upbeat outcomes promise to deliver the opposite
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Friday’s break below $1244 opens the door for
a range floor retest of $1191-$1206. We will want to keep an eye on SSI
if price enters the range floor. Likewise, follow SSI for clues on the
near term direction during Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. A falling SSI
may indicate a bullish undertone while an increasing SSI may indicate a
Forex Weekly Outlook April 25-29 (based on the article)
The US dollar ended the week on a positive note. GDP reports from the US and elsewhere, durable goods orders and the Fed meeting all stand out. Also note the BOJ’s decision which has become more important now. These are the highlights of this week.
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 11 pips range price movement
2016-04-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.==========
EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
EUR/USD: ranging, or bearish reversal by 1.1143 level to be broken
is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) with near and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the ranging market condition waiting for direction within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:
If the price breaks 1.1397 level to below so we may see the bullish trend on intra-day chart, and if the price breaks 1.1217 level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.
Daily price is located above 100/200 SMA for the bullosh market condition with the ranging within 1.1464 bullish Fibo resistance level and 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.1143. If the price breaks 1.1143 to below so the veresal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
Anyway, United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD intra-day price to be in bearish condition, and the daily price to be turned to the bearish condition as well by breaking 1.1143 level (1.1145 by UOB) to below. But UOB estimated this level as the very strong one so the ranging market condition for this pair is having good probability in the future as well.
"The downward momentum is not as impulsive as we would like.
Furthermore, the target of 1.1145 is a strong support and EUR would
likely struggle to move clearly below this level. Those who are short should look to take partial profit at 1.1145."
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and 36 pips price movement
2016-04-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.
EUR/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news event
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian CPI and 107 pips price movement
2016-04-27 01:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
AUD/USD M5: 107 pips price movement by Australian CPI news event
NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 19 pips price movement
2016-04-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)
[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.
NZD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event
GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 30 pips price movement
2016-04-27 08:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)
[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.
GBP/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event