Press review - page 391

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Retail Sales and 60 pips price movement

2016-04-22 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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  • "Retail sales rose for the second consecutive month, advancing 0.4% to $44.2 billion in February. Gains were reported in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 89% of total retail trade."
  • "The gain in February was tempered by lower sales at gasoline stations. Excluding sales in this subsector, retail sales advanced 1.0%."
  • "After removing the effects of price changes, particularly lower gasoline prices, retail sales in volume terms increased 1.5%."


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USD/CAD M5: 60 pips price movement by Canada Retail Sales news event :


The Daily — Retail trade, February 2016
  • 2016.04.22
  • www.statcan.gc.ca
Total retail sales expressed in volume are calculated by deflating current dollar values using consumer price indexes. The retail sales series in chained (2007) dollars is a chained Fisher volume index with 2007 as the reference year. For more information, see Calculation of Volume of Retail Trade Sales. With this release, unadjusted monthly...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI and 24 pips price movement

2016-04-22 13:45 GMT | [USD - Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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"At 50.8 in April, down from 51.5 in March, the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) signalled the weakest upturnin overall business conditions since September 2009. The flash PMI index, which is based on approximately 85% of usual monthly survey replies, was only marginally above the crucial 50.0 no-change threshold."

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EUR/USD M5: 24 pips price movement by Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, NZD/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "There is no doubt that the 1Q GDP reading due Thursday will be capable of stoking serious volatility, but its influence may further prove more systemic. Relative growth and stability is increasingly important to the distribution of global funds. If the United States’ looks more robust, it will draw capital from faltering Eurozone and Japanese markets; while stability will encourage funds from China and the emerging markets. It should be mentioned that speculation for this data is very scattered. The Atlanta Fed’s forecast was 0.1 percent, the New Fed’s new forecast set it at 1.1 percent and the economists’ consensus is for 0.6 percent annualized growth."


USD/JPY - "The one thing that is certain is that the Yen is primed for volatility. The prevailing trend is and has been one of Yen strength, and all factors held equal, this wouldn’t be an outlandish expectation for the next couple of weeks. But given this morning’s report, which obviously came from someone very close to the Bank of Japan’s discussions, anything can happen when the BoJ meets next week. And just as we saw when the ECB enacted such a policy, it would be impossible to say definitively that the Yen would strengthen or weaken on the back of such an announcement."


USD/CNH - "The probability of PBOC cutting RRR after the Fed’s next meeting on April 27th is high. The Fed will determine whether to raise US benchmark rates at this meeting, and the probability of the Fed increasing rates in the April meeting is 0% and for June is currently showing at 15.4% based on Fed Funds futures. The Yuan’s appreciation against the US Dollar over the past two weeks has helped to slow down the pace of capital flowing out of China."


NZD/USD - "At the end of last week, the ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.22 as 55% of traders are long. Long positions are 1.8% higher than yesterday and 17.4% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 16.2% lower than yesterday and 25.6% below levels seen last week."


AUD/USD - "Thus far, sales and earnings have topped analysts’ estimates by 0.27 and 4.03 percent respectively, with 130 of the companies included in the benchmark S&P 500 index reporting. Lackluster results may sour confidence and punish high-yielding FX alongside share prices, sending the Aussie lower. Needless to say, upbeat outcomes promise to deliver the opposite results."


GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Friday’s break below $1244 opens the door for a range floor retest of $1191-$1206. We will want to keep an eye on SSI if price enters the range floor. Likewise, follow SSI for clues on the near term direction during Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. A falling SSI may indicate a bullish undertone while an increasing SSI may indicate a bearish undertone."

Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Decision, BoJ Intervention, 1Q GDP Top Event Risk
Weekly Trading Forecast: Fed Decision, BoJ Intervention, 1Q GDP Top Event Risk
  • DailyFX
  • www.dailyfx.com
The week ahead is the antithesis of what we leave behind. The docket is stocked with major market movers - event risk that can do much more than generate a little volatility. Finally, a bit of a reprieve for the USDollar. Having found itself under moderate but persistent pressure since its recent peak at the beginning of February, the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Forex Weekly Outlook April 25-29 (based on the article)

The US dollar ended the week on a positive note. GDP reports from the US and elsewhere, durable goods orders and the Fed meeting all stand out. Also note the BOJ’s decision which has become more important now. These are the highlights of this week.

  1. German Ifo Business Climate.
  2. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 12:30.
  3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00.
  4. UK GDP data: Wednesday, 8:30. The UK economy expanded by 0.6% in the last quarter of 2015, reaching a better growth rate according to the latest data.
  5. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30. Oil prices increased 4% last week after a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories offset worries of increased output on the part of Kuwait. Crude stocks rose 2.1 million barrels while expected to rise 2.2 million-barrel. Crude prices had initially tumbled after the Kuwaiti oil and gas industry called off their three-day strike and increased their output to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.1 million on Sunday.
  6. US rate decision: Wednesday, 18:00. In the previous policy meeting, the Fed said it is not going to raise its key interest rate initially planned. The Fed also cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth and inflation, radically lowering its estimate for the number of rate hikes in 2016. Janet Yellen, had estimated in December that the economy would grow 2.4% this year and that the Fed would raise rates four times. But then, stock markets became volatile, oil prices plunged and fears of a U.S. recession intensified in January and early February. As a result, Yellen and the Fed leaders are expecting only two rate hikes this year. The Fed also lowered its economic growth outlook for the year to 2.2%, compared with 2.4% previously reported. Furthermore, the Fed also noted that future rate hikes will be gradual and that the “policy is not on a pre-set course” and will change with accordance to economic conditions.
  7. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates by 25 basis points reaching 2.25% on its March meeting. The move was not anticipated by analysts. The bank said that the global economic outlook worsened since December with weaker growth in China and Europe.
  8. Japan rate decision: Thursday. The Bank of Japan kept its interest rates unchanged from its last meeting in January where it shocked markets by adopting a negative interest rate policy implying on further rate cuts if needed. The central banks said exports and production were sluggish mainly due to the slowdown in emerging markets. Sluggishness is expected to continue in exports and production for the coming days, while domestic demand is expected to gather strength.
  9. US GDP data: Thursday, 12:30.
  10. US Unemployment claims: Thursday, 12:30.
  11. Canadian GDP data: Friday, 12:30.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and 11 pips range price movement

2016-04-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.

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EUR/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event :


CESifo Group Munich - Ifo Business Climate Index
  • www.cesifo-group.de
The Ifo Business Climate Index is a highly-regarded early indicator of economic developments in Germany published on a monthly basis. Detailed results of the Ifo Business Survey are published in the ifo Konjunkturperspektiven (in German) and a summary (in German) is available online.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)

EUR/USD: ranging, or bearish reversal by 1.1143 level to be broken

H4 price is located below 100 period SMA (100 SMA) with near and above 200 period SMA (200 SMA) for the ranging market condition waiting for direction within the following key reversal support/resistance levels:

  • 1.1397 resistance level located above 100/200 SMA ranging area, and
  • 1.1217 support level located below 100/200 SMA.

If the price breaks 1.1397 level to below so we may see the bullish trend on intra-day chart, and if the price breaks 1.1217 level to below so the bearish trend will be continuing.


Daily price is located above 100/200 SMA for the bullosh market condition with the ranging within 1.1464 bullish Fibo resistance level and 50.0% Fibo support level at 1.1143. If the price breaks 1.1143 to below so the veresal of the price movement to the primary bearish market condition will be started.


Anyway, United Overseas Bank is considering the EUR/USD intra-day price to be in bearish condition, and the daily price to be turned to the bearish condition as well by breaking 1.1143 level (1.1145 by UOB) to below. But UOB estimated this level as the very strong one so the ranging market condition for this pair is having good probability in the future as well.

"The downward momentum is not as impulsive as we would like. Furthermore, the target of 1.1145 is a strong support and EUR would likely struggle to move clearly below this level. Those who are short should look to take partial profit at 1.1145."

  • If the price will break 1.1397 resistance level on close H4 bar so the primary intra-day bullish trend will be continuing without secondary ranging.
  • If price will break 1.1143 support on daily bar so the reversal of the price movement from the primary bullish to the primary bearish market condition will be started.
  • If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and 36 pips price movement

2016-04-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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EUR/USD M5: 36 pips price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news event :


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian CPI and 107 pips price movement

2016-04-27 01:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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  • "fell 0.2% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% last quarter."
  • "rose 1.3% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2015."

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AUD/USD M5: 107 pips price movement by Australian CPI news event :


6401.0 - Consumer Price Index, Australia, Mar 2016
  • www.abs.gov.au
MARCH KEY FIGURES MARCH KEY POINTS THE ALL GROUPS CPI fell 0.2% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% last quarter. rose 1.3% over the twelve months to the March quarter 2016, compared with a rise of 1.7% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2015. OVERVIEW OF CPI MOVEMENTS The most significant price falls this quarter...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade and 19 pips price movement

2016-04-26 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

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NZD/USD M5: 19 pips price movement by NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade news event :


Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016
Overseas Merchandise Trade: March 2016
  • www.stats.govt.nz
March 2016 quarter: Values are seasonally adjusted and compared with the December 2015 quarter. Exports fell 1.2 percent (to $11.9 billion). Meat and edible offal led the fall, down 17 percent ($300 million), with the quantity exported down 16 percent. Imports fell 3.2 percent (to $12.8 billion). The quarterly trade deficit was $944 million...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Gross Domestic Product and 30 pips price movement

2016-04-27 08:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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  • "Change in gross domestic product (GDP) is the main indicator of economic growth. GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.4% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 compared with growth of 0.6% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2015."
  • "Output increased in services by 0.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016. The other 3 main industrial groupings within the economy decreased, with production falling by 0.4%, construction output by 0.9% and agriculture by 0.1%."
  • "GDP was 2.1% higher in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 compared with the same quarter a year ago."
  • "In Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016, GDP was estimated to have been 7.3% higher than the pre-economic downturn peak of Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008. From the peak in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2008 to the trough in Quarter 2 (Apr to June) 2009, the economy shrank by 6.1%."

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GBP/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by U.K. Gross Domestic Product news event :