Forecast and levels for Dow Jones Industrial Average - page 2

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.19 07:37

Weekly Outlook: 2017, February 19 - February 26 (based on the article)

A mixed and turbulent week saw the dollar going in all directions. Where will it go? UK GDP data, US FOMC Meeting Minutes, and other events stand out. These are the nain eventa on forex calendar for this week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, H8 timeframe, bearish developing retracement pattern:

 

  1. UK GDP data: Wednesday, 9:30. Economists forecast a 0.6% growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2016.
  2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
  3. US FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 19:00.
  4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Analysts estimate an increase of 242,000 new claims this week.
  5. Philip Lowe speaks: Thursday, 22:30. RBA Governor Philip Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.11 08:42

Dow Jones Industrial Average - Trading Strategies For The 5 Best Performing Dow Stocks (based on the article)

Daily price is located above Ichimku cloud for the bullish ranging within 21,169 resistance level and 20,777 support level for the waiting for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the secondary correction to be started.


  • "There are 24 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average that were members of the Dow 30 when the average traded as low as 6,470 back on March 6, 2009. From this low to the all-time intraday high of 21,169.11 set on March 1, 2017, the Dow is up 227%."
  • "Among the 24 components still in the average, 12 underperformed. But five gained by more than 500%, led by Home Depot (up 738%), American Express (up 716%), Disney (up 633%), Boeing (up 521%) and JPMorgan Chase (up 516%)."
  • "Most on Wall Street say that the stock market rally can continue. In my opinion, investors should reduce holdings by 50% to lock in gains. From the Dow all-time high of 21,169 to my highest risky level of 22,148, the additional upside is just 4.6%, not worth the bet for long-term investors."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.08 09:41

Weekly Outlook: 2017,April 09 - April 16 (based on the article)

The US dollar eventually emerged as a winner from a tense week. Is this the beginning of a trend? A speech by Janet Yellen, a rate decision in Canada, Australian employment data, US inflation data, and US consumer figures stand out. These are the main events on forex calendar.


  • Janet Yellen speaks: Monday, 20:00. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at the University of Michigan, taking questions from the audience.
  • UK Inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. UK inflation is expected to reach 2.2% this time.
  • Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00.
  • Australian employment data: Thursday, 1:30. A job gain of 20,300 is predicted in March with the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%.
  • US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect producer prices to be flat this time.
  • US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Jobless claims are expected to reach 242,000 this week.
  • US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment: Thursday, 14:00. Consumer moral is expected to remain elevated at 97.1 in April.
  • US inflation data: Friday, 12:30. CPI is expected to remain unchanged, while core inflation is anticipated to rise by 0.2% in Mach.
  • US Retail sales: Friday, 12:30. US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.1% with a 0.2% gain in core sales.

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.23 07:46

    The Week Ahead In Stock Market (based on the article)


    • "The stock market started the week under a cloud based on increased global tensions and holidays in the US and overseas. Heading into the last trading day before the Easter holiday stocks looked week technically but there were many signs based on my analysis that meant the risk was too high for new short positions."
    • "Those on the short side were likely surprised by last Monday's strong performance. They may have felt better when the Dow Industrials dropped sharply last Wednesday in reaction to the weak earnings from IBM, Goldman Sachs and Johnson & Johnson. The shorts were squeezed once again on Thursday  as stocks had their best day since March."
    • "The calendar is full this week with the Chicago National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey on Monday. Then on Tuesday we have the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index."
    • "On Thursday we get the Durable Goods orders and Pending Home Sales Index followed on Friday by the GDP,  Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment."

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.30 08:19

    S&P 500 and Dow Jones: traders remain short (based on the article)

    S&P 500 daily price was on the secondary correction and it was bounced from 2354 support level to below for 2418 resistance level to be tested. Anyway, the bearish divergence is appear on the daily price, while the ascending triangle pattern was formed for the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Strategy: stay neutral.


    Dow Jones price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following s/r levels:

    • 21070 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
    • 20379 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

    • "Our data shows a massive 83% of traders with open positions in the US 500 remain short, while positions on the Dow Jones-tracking ‘Wall Street’ contract stand at 85% short and FTSE 100 at a near-record 90% short."
    • "The major caveat is nonetheless simple: price and sentiment extremes are, by definition, only clear in hindsight. If we look at past incidences of such one-sided positioning it seems clear they precede key turning points: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reversed lower through early March when sentiment hit over 80% short (below 20% long). Of course sentiment remained at least 80% short for over a month as both indices continued onto fresh record highs. It remains impossible to identify the true sentiment extreme, and caution is advised against joining ‘the crowd’ as they sell into equity market gains."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.31 07:37

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - intra-day correction; 21,112 resistance is the key (based on the article)

    DJIA H4 price was bounced from 21,112 resistance level to below for 21,009 support level to be tested for the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started.


    • "Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has recovered well from the losses stemming from May 17. With DJIA printing above 21,078 late last week, it alters the pattern we were following some. Previously, we were looking for a small dip in price to offer a buying opportunity towards new highs. As we see below, the door is now opened for a slightly larger dip back towards 20,440."
    • "From an Elliott Wave perspective, we have the current wave higher labeled as wave (b). This Elliott Wave model allows for the current wave to continue higher up to 21,471, though it doesn’t have to. Therefore, between now and around 21,471, DJIA is at risk of finishing this shorter term uptrend in favor of a sell off back towards 20,440."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.06.24 08:17

    DJIA and S&P 500: breaking new high (based on the article)

    "The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the German DAX are the only three major averages around the globe to set new all-time intraday highs this week, and they did so on June 19 or June 20. All nine indexes have positive weekly charts. Overbought readings are noted on the Dow 30, S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Nikkei 225, India’s Nifty 50 and the German DAX. Dow Transports, Russell 2000 and the Shanghai Composite have rising momentum readings."


    "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (21,397.29 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 21,535.03 on June 20, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 21,987 and 22,041, respectively. My quarterly value level lags at 19,189."


    "The S&P 500 (2,434.15 on June 22) set an all-time intraday high of 2,453.82 on June 19, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. Reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels of 2,448.8 and 2,537.9, respectively. Note that the monthly level has been tested as a warning. My quarterly value level lags at 2,225.2."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.18 07:58

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - daily bullish; 1,681 is the key (based on the article)

    Price on the daily chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is testing 21,681 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing.
    By the way, if the price breaks 21,279 support to below on daily close bar so the secondary correction will be started on the ranging way with the good possibility to the reversal to the primary bearish market condition. 


    • "Going back 100 years before the semiconductor was invented, Dow Theory (analysis of the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial average and the Dow Jones Transporation Average) ruled the stock market. Today, the stock market is moving higher on the back of a Dow Theory buy signal as the Materials Sector SPDR ETF and iShares Transportation Average ETF set new all-time intraday highs on Friday."
    • "The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF still has a negative but oversold weekly chart, while the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF shows a potential double-top."


     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.31 18:34

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - bullish breakout; 21,914 is the key (based on the article)

    The price on monthly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is breaking 21,535 resistance level to above together with ascending triangle pattern with 21,914 resistance level to be broken for the bullish breakout to be continuing.


    • "The Dow Jones Industrial Average (21,830.31 on July 28) set an all-time intraday high of 21,841.18 on July 28, and has a positive but overbought weekly chart. The five-week modified moving average is 21,452 with the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading above the overbought threshold of 80.00 at 91.63. Buy weakness to my quarterly value level of 20,327. Reduce holdings on strength to my weekly, annual and semiannual risky levels of 21,916, 22,041 and 22,127, respectively."

     

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    Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.30 12:47

    Dow Jones Industrial Average - ranging bullish; 22,179 is the key (based on the article)

    DJIA on weekly chart is located far above Ichimoku cloud for the bulish with the ranging within 22,179 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing and 21,279 support level for the secondary correction to be started. Ascending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to above for the bullish to be resumed.

    Most likely scenario: ranging bullish.


    • "DJIA is approaching a trend line created by connecting the August 8 and August 16 highs. This line is important for the near term because a close above the line suggests the near term down trend has abated. The bullish wave labeling is that the August 8 to August 21 correction is an a-b-c zigzag. This implies a retest of the 22,178 high. If prices respect this resistance trend line and head lower, then our bearish Elliott Wave model may be taking shape to retest the 21,600 lows and possibly lower levels."


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