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XAG/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell and lost about 50 points.
Market volatility is expected to be low today. Attention needs to be paid to data on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices in the US. According to forecasts, the index will fall that might pressure the USD. Also, pay attention to data on Consumer Confidence that is expected to grow by 3.4%.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the upper and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100, and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a negative trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and its volumes are growing. ADX is falling and DI lines are directed down indicating a fall in the pair.
Support levels: 13.86, 13.67.
Resistance levels: 14.03, 14.19, 14.40.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 14.03 with the target at 14.19. Validity – 1 day.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 13.86 with the target at 13.67. Validity – 1 day.
XAU/USD: pair remains within range
Current trend
On Monday, the price of gold declined by 0.7% to $1068 per ounce.
US Fed aims at gradual tightening of monetary policy. As long as the US Dollar will be strengthening, the price of gold is likely to remain under pressure. Borrowing costs for purchase and storage of gold tend to increase.
From 3:30 to 8:00 pm (GMT+2) attention needs to be paid to US news releases, among which Consumer Confidence data for December. The indicator is expected to be up to 93.8 from 90.4 points that will support the US Dollar.
Support and resistance
In December, the XAU/USD pair has been trading within the range of 1085.00-1050.00.
On the 4-hour chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions, but a growth in the pair is limited by the resistance levels of 1075.00 (EMA144) and 1080.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart). On the daily chart, the indicators have started giving sell signals. However, due to a lack of drivers, the price is likely to remain within the range.
Fundamental factors create prerequisites for a further decline in the price of gold.
Support levels: 1071.00, 1067.00, 1060.00, 1050.00.
Resistance levels: 1075.00, 1080.00, 1085.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1068.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1040.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1077.00.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1082.00 with targets at 1085.00, 1088.00 and stop-loss at 1079.00.
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Brent: review and forecast
Current trend
Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil fell when the American Petroleum Institute published its weekly estimate of US crude oil inventories. Last week, crude oil stocks increased by 2.9 million barrels while analysts expected a decline by 2.5 billion barrels.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4-hour chart is directed down so the price is likely to continue declining. Though MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes are falling.
Support levels: 36.80, 36.35, 35.90.
Resistance levels: 38.00, 39.00, 40.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened at the current level with targets at 36.35, 35.90.
Long positions can be opened if the price consolidates above the level of 38.00 with targets at 39.00, 40.00.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Nationwide Housing Prices data has been released today in the UK. Despite the indicator came in at 4.5% in annual terms, the GBP/USD pair fell to its April lows. At present, a correction might start – the price has turned up and is trading in the area of 1.4823.
Not much macroeconomic data is released ahead of the New Year holidays. Today, attention needs to be paid to Pending Home Sales statistics, due in the US. Analysts forecast the indicator to come in at 0.5% from 0.2% that might support the US Dollar. Nevertheless, no high trading activity should be expected.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down, indicating a fall in the pair. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes remain almost unchanged. The DI lines of ADX are directed down; according to the indicator, the price tends to decline.
During the day, the pair is likely to be trading within the channel 1.4791-1.4876.
Support levels: 1.4791 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.4876 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.4922, 1.4963.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.4876 and stop-loss at 1.4800.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.4876 with the target at 1.4800.
Validity – 1-2 days.
GBP/USD: pair trades flat
Current trend
On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair ended the trading day at the opening level of 1.4815.
Trading volumes remain low today, but the volatility might increase during the publication of ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts and a series of indicators from the US. Tomorrow, financial markets are closed, and trading will resume on Monday, 4 January.
Support and resistance
The GBP/USD pair is trading within a narrow range between 1.800 and 1.4830. The price is in the lower part of a descending channel with the lower border near the level of 1.4770.
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators show the pair will be trading flat. In general, the decline in the pair tends to continue.
After the breakdown of 1.4800, the price might move further towards 1.4750, 1.4600 (year lows).
Support levels: 1.4800, 1.4770, 1.4750, 1.4700.
Resistance levels: 1.4880, 1.4925, 1.4985, 1.5025, 1.5080, 1.5100, 1.5140, 1.5230.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.4800, 1.4750 and stop-loss at 1.4860.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4870 with targets at 1.5000, 1.5050, 1.5100, 1.5120, 1.5190 and stop-loss at 1.4820.
USD/CAD: general review
Current trend
Last week there were very few macroeconomic publications and the pair was trading in the narrow range. The pair was pressured by poor US data on Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales that came out worse than forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US that is forecasted to fall to 49.0 points.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading in the upper Bollinger band. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are falling. ADX is falling, DI lines directed down.
Supportlevels: 1.3772 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.3591, 1.3592, 1.3454.
Resistancelevels: 1.4000 (middle of December high).
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.4000 and stop-loss at 1.3830.
Short positions can be opened after the price consolidation below the level of1.3772 with the target at 1.3660 and stop-loss at 1.3830.
USD/JPY: pair fell
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair significantly fell amid growing tensions in the Middle East where Saudi Arabia on Sunday cut off their diplomatic ties with Iran. At present, investors prefer to switch their funds into safe-haven currencies, one of which is the Yen.
At the same time, the Dollar was unexpectedly supported by poor macroeconomic statistics from the US. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for December fell from 48.6 to 48.2 points, while economists predicted a growth to 49.0 points.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is widening. However, the indicator points out to a possibility of the correctional growth in the pair. MACD is falling. Stochastic left the oversold zone and turned horizontally.
The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 119.39 (local low), 119.05, 118.67 (yesterday low), 118.24, 118.00.
Resistance levels: 119.69 (local high), 120.00 (psychologically important level), 120.16, 120.34, 120.56, 120.83, 121.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 120.00 (with the appropriate indicators signals) with the target at 121.00 and stop-loss at 119.50. Validity – 2-3 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 119.00 with the target at 118.00 and stop-loss at 119.60. Validity – 2-4 days.
EUR/USD: technical analysis
EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart, the pair has failed to break out the 61.8% Fibonacci fan line and turned down. The price is falling along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands and is currently forming the second close below the line. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI broke down important support line and falling towards its November supports. The Composite is reaching its critical levels suggesting a room for further decline is limited.
EUR/USD, H4
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is correcting up from the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are directed down. The RSI turned up after it formed a Bullish divergence with the price. The Composite is about to test its yesterday’s resistance level.
Key levels
Support levels: 1.0710 (local lows), 1.0673 (November lows), 1.0550 (December lows).
Resistance levels: 1.0801 (active trade), 1.0837 (local highs), 1.0927 (beginning of the week highs).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.0710 with targets at 1.0673, 1.0565 and stop-loss at 1.0745. Validity – 2-3 days.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.0837 with the target at 1.0917 and stop-loss at 1.0795. Validity – 2-3 days.