Press review - page 522

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Building Approvals and range price movement 

2017-05-29 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Building Permits]

• past data is -1.2%
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is -7.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Building Permits] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued. 

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From official report:

• "The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented fell 7.6 percent, partly due to the timing of Easter."
• "The trend for the number of new dwellings consented is showing signs of increasing. It reached a 12-year high in mid-2016, but decreased towards the end of the year."

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Building Approvals news event

MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

NZDUSD, M5, 2017.05.30

MetaQuotes Software Corp., MetaTrader 5, Demo

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 and Dow Jones: traders remain short (based on the article)

S&P 500 daily price was on the secondary correction and it was bounced from 2354 support level to below for 2418 resistance level to be tested. Anyway, the bearish divergence is appear on the daily price, while the ascending triangle pattern was formed for the price to be crossed to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Strategy: stay neutral.

Dow Jones price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the following s/r levels:

• 21070 resistance level for the bullish trend to be continuing, and
• 20379 support level for the secondary correction to be started.

• "Our data shows a massive 83% of traders with open positions in the US 500 remain short, while positions on the Dow Jones-tracking ‘Wall Street’ contract stand at 85% short and FTSE 100 at a near-record 90% short."
• "The major caveat is nonetheless simple: price and sentiment extremes are, by definition, only clear in hindsight. If we look at past incidences of such one-sided positioning it seems clear they precede key turning points: the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reversed lower through early March when sentiment hit over 80% short (below 20% long). Of course sentiment remained at least 80% short for over a month as both indices continued onto fresh record highs. It remains impossible to identify the true sentiment extreme, and caution is advised against joining ‘the crowd’ as they sell into equity market gains."

[Sergey Golubev]

FTSE 100 - Relegation Candidates (based on the article)

Daily shares price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on trying to break 7554 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing. Alternative, if the price crosses 7447 support to below so the secondary correction will be started with 7197 support as a bearish reversal target.

• "A reshuffle of the FTSE 100, the UK’s blue-chip index, takes place later this week together with companies being promoted and relegated from the FTSE 250 index. Possible candidates to fall out of Britain’s leading index by market capitalization include a pharmaceutical company, a shopping centre investor, and Royal Mail, one of the nation’s most recognized brands."
• "Of candidates in the frame for potential promotion to the UK’s major stockmarket index, a decision which will be made based on the market capitalization of companies at close of trading on Tuesday 30 May and be communicated after on Wednesday. FTSE Russell, part of the London Stock Exchange Group (LSE), is crunching the numbers to derive the new entrants and fallers."
• "Stock prices late last week indicated that companies in prime promotion positions are security solutions group G4S and industrial property developer Segro. The latter’s shares closed last Friday at a tad over £4.90 - up around 16% from the start of this year. As the largest employer quoted on the London Stock Exchange, G4S has operations in over 110 countries. Listed on the London and Copenhagen Stock Exchanges back on 20 July 2004, the share price (now around £3.27, implying a market capitalization of some £5 billion (bn)/on Price-Earnings ratio of 25) has staged a significant recovery of late on the back of reassuring results. And, the market is warming to the management’s restructuring as it addresses past problems."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-05-30 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 119.4
• forecast data is 120.1
• actual data is 117.9 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report:

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in April, declined slightly in May. The Index now stands at 117.9 (1985=100), down from 119.4 in April. The Present Situation Index increased marginally from 140.3 to 140.7, while the Expectations Index declined from 105.4 last month to 102.6 in May."
• “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in May, following a moderate decline in April,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions held steady, suggesting little change in overall economic conditions. Looking ahead, consumers were somewhat less upbeat than in April, but overall remain optimistic that the economy will continue expanding into the summer months."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - intra-day correction; 21,112 resistance is the key (based on the article)

DJIA H4 price was bounced from 21,112 resistance level to below for 21,009 support level to be tested for the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend to be started.

• "Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has recovered well from the losses stemming from May 17. With DJIA printing above 21,078 late last week, it alters the pattern we were following some. Previously, we were looking for a small dip in price to offer a buying opportunity towards new highs. As we see below, the door is now opened for a slightly larger dip back towards 20,440."
• "From an Elliott Wave perspective, we have the current wave higher labeled as wave (b). This Elliott Wave model allows for the current wave to continue higher up to 21,471, though it doesn’t have to. Therefore, between now and around 21,471, DJIA is at risk of finishing this shorter term uptrend in favor of a sell off back towards 20,440."

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily price is on weekly resistance to be tested; 1.1268 level is the key (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish ranging within 1.1268 weekly resistance level and 1.1095 support level. If the price crosses 1.1268 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing, otherwise - bullish ranging within the levels.

• "The CAC 40 and EUR/USD are rebounding this morning, paring losses from earlier this week. This bounce in European markets has come despite Euro-Zone CPI being reported under expectations for the month of May. EUR-Zone CPI (YoY) (May) was expected at 1.5%, but released at an actual 1.4%. With little European news left on the calendar, traders will next be looking to Friday’s U.S. Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (May) to provide direction. Expectations for Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls (May) are currently set at 180k."
• "The EUR/USD has now risen as much as 119 pips from yesterday’s low of 1.1109.Unlike the CAC 40, the EUR/USD has already broken out above its 10 day EMA which is found at 1.1171. With prices trading higher, traders may next look for the pair to challenge the standing 2017 high at 1.1268. If the EUR/USD is rejected below the yearly high, traders may look for the pair to trade back below its 10 day EMA. In a bearish scenario traders may look for the EUR/USD to then trade to new weekly lows under 1.1109, then potentially push to new monthly lows under 1.0839."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and range price movement 

2017-06-01 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.2%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 1.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level. 

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From official report:

• "The trend estimate rose 0.1% in April 2017. This follows a rise of 0.1% in March 2017 and a rise of 0.1% in February 2017."
• "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 1.0% in April 2017. This follows a fall of 0.2% in March 2017 and a relatively unchanged February 2017 (0.0%)."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil and WTI - bullish ranging near above Ichimoku cloud; 43.55 for Brent Crude Oil and 42.18 for WTI are the keys (based on the article)

Weekly price for Crude Oil is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart. The price is ranging within 58.35 resistance level and 46.62 support level with the descending pattern tpo be formed for the price to be crossed 46.62 and with 43.55 bearish reversal support level.

• "For the past couple years, crude oil has been chopping around in the $30 to $60 trading range as traders parse conflicting factors such as the persistent oil glut, OPEC production cuts, rebounding U.S. shale oil production, and the vagaries of the U.S. dollar. This phenomenon of low volatility is not isolated to crude oil - it's the same story throughout the global financial markets."
• "Like WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil is trading in a range between $30 and $60 per barrel, with $40 being another important long-term support level to be mindful of. A decisive breakout from this range is necessary to confirm the next major crude oil trend."

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WTI weekly price is near and above Ichimoku cloud for the ranging within 55.21 bullish continuation resistance and 43.73 support level. Bearish descending pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for 42.18 bearish reversal support level as a target.

• "West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has been trading in a clear range between $30 and $60 per barrel, with $40/barrel being an important support level as well. WTI crude oil needs to break out of this range (in one direction or another) in a convincing manner in order to signal the start of the next major trend. Until then, expect volatility to continue falling as long as WTI crude is stuck in this range."
• "The monthly WTI crude oil chart shows the importance of the $40 support level that I've been discussing for a while. Commercial crude oil hedgers or the "smart money" have maintained a short position in crude oil over the past several years, but have recently been paring back as crude fell. It's hard to get excited about a bottom in crude oil until the "smart money" cover most of their short position (get back to neutral)."

[Sergey Golubev]

Nike share price estimated to be reduced to 51 (based on the article)

Nike shares price is located near and below Ichimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart. The descent bearish triangle pattern was formed by the price together with 50.81 to be crossed to below for the weekly primary bearish trend to be continue.

• "Despite its consistent growth in recent years, Nike is facing some headwinds in several of its businesses. Apart from a soft U.S. apparel market, the company has also been facing increased competition from the likes of Under Armour and Adidas in the footwear market. Furthermore, the sportswear manufacturer is facing pressure on demand for its products, as indicated by lower-than-expected future orders."
• "Taking the aforementioned factors into account, we have reduced our price estimate for Nike by around 14% to $51, which is slightly below the current market price. The company is still well-positioned for future growth, but meeting its ambitious targets may be difficult."

[Sergey Golubev]

ISM Manufacturing PMI forecasts by some significant sources

2017-06-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 54.8
• forecast data is 54.7
• actual data is N/A according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = ISM Manufacturing PMI shows the business conditions in the US manufacturing sector in the reporting month. The indicator is based on a survey of representatives from more than 400 companies. Unlike Markit, ISM considers not only private companies but is based on the common NAICS (North American Industrial Classification System) list. The questionnaire considers employment, production level, inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries.

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Forecast data from the source: 

• MQL5 Calendar: 53.8
• Forex-Factory calenday: 54.7
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 55.0
• Barclays Research: 55.0
• SEB: 54.2
• Bloomberg Consensus

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