Press review - page 498

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500 Outlook - correction with 2,371 support level (based on the article)

Daily price was bounced from 2,400 resistance to below for the seccondary correction to be started: the price is on testing the support level at 2,371 to below for the correction to be continuing.

• "What we will be watching – support, of course. As long as the intersection between the November & ‘cross-through’ trend-line from the February 2016 low keep a bid in the market, then it will be tough to be anything but neutral to bullish. But a slice through those lines and a drop below Thursday’s low and horizontal support at ~2353 will warrant a switch in bias as another leg lower off the early-month high kicks off."
• "Heads up: FOMC tomorrow may provide a jolt of volatility. The market is expecting a 25-bps rate increase, so ruling out a 0 or 50-bps move volatility will likely stem from the Fed’s language (as is typically the case). No predictions on this end, we’ll simply react to the reaction and go from there…"

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Bitcoin/USD and Gold (XAU/USD): U.S. Producer Price Index

2017-03-14 12:30 GMT | [USD - PPI]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - PPI] = Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers.

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From official report:

• "The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.3 percent in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.2 percent in December. On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index climbed 2.2 percent for the 12 months ended February 2017, the largest advance since a 2.4-percent increase in the 12 months ended March 2012."
• "In February, over 80 percent of the advance in the final demand index is attributable to a 0.4-percent increase in prices for final demand services. The index for final demand goods moved up 0.3 percent."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

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Bitcoin/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

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Gold (XAU/USD) M5: range price movement by U.S. Producer Price Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Ahead of FOMC (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above for the breakout with the bullish reversal: the price is testing resistance level at 1.3534 to above for the bullish trend to be continuing with 1.3598 target to re-enter.

• "The USD/CAD is trading higher this morning as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision. Expectations are set to see key rates to rise to 0.75%, and traders will also be looking to Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s conference to provide further direction for US Dollar based pairs."
• "Technically, the USD/CAD is currently trading below the standing 2017 high at 1.3535. Despite the markets retracement, the pair remains supported in a short term uptrend by its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), which is found at 1.3438. In the event that tomorrows event is US Dollar bullish, traders will look for the USD/CAD to bounce and trade back towards yearly highs. Alternatively, in the event of a selloff, the pair will first need to breach the 10 day EMA before trading towards new lower lows."

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD - pre-FOMC movement and levels (based on the article)

H4 price is on the secondary rally within the primary bearish market condition: the price is on testing with Senkou Span line to above for the possible bullish reversal to be loacted inside the ranging Ichimoku cloud.

• "For those looking to take a directional stance on the pair, the short-side could continue to present challenges given this long-term zone of support just underneath current price action. The bullish side could be difficult to work with as well, at least until some element of a bullish driver shows up; and given that we’re sitting just ahead of FOMC and then a BoE rate decision tomorrow morning, the potential is certainly there."
• "For those that do want to look at a bullish stance in Cable, a break back-above that key zone around 1.2250 could make the setup a bit more attractive. Let buyers push prices higher above-resistance first to indicate that bulls may be able to continue driving-forward; at which point seeking out a ‘higher low’ at a prior level of resistance could open the door to top-side setups, with the goal of trading the longer-term range in the pair."

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and EUR/USD: Fed Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2017-03-15 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

• past data is 0.75%
• forecast data is 1.00%
• actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report:

• "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in February indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate was little changed in recent months. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment appears to have firmed somewhat. Inflation has increased in recent quarters, moving close to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective; excluding energy and food prices, inflation was little changed and continued to run somewhat below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
• "The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to raise the interest rate paid on required and excess reserve balances to 1.00 percent, effective March 16, 2017."

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GBP/USD M5: 85 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events

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EUR/USD M5: 72 pips range price movement by Fed Funds Rate news events

[Sergey Golubev]

Brent Crude Oil - daily bearish with 50.23 support level (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the reversal from the ranging bullish to the primary bearish market condition. The price is testing support level at 51.12 and 50.23 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging.

• "Before Crude Oil broke down and traded below the 200-DMA ($48.65 as of 3/15/17), Oil and Gas Energy & Exploration stocks had broken down and appear to be leading Oil, so it continues to be worth watching. The rolling 20-day correlation for Crude Oil forward contract and the S&P Oil Producer Index is +.598 as of March 15, which is significant."
• "The price of Crude Oil recently traded below the 200-DMA with RSI(5) registering a bearish extreme. If the price pops higher as it did in April, August, and November of last year, the Bulls may feel as though they’ve dodged a bullet. However, the Crude Oil market doesn’t have the fundamental support that other commodity sectors like base metals have, which could lead to an eventual breakdown toward the November low of $43.75/42.25. "
• "While such a breakdown would hurt, price holding above the November low could indicate a longer-term consolidation lasting much of the year, which is when larger-range Fibonacci Retracement is best used. Either an immediate move back above the 200-DMA or hold of the November low would keep a neutral market still anticipating an eventual move back toward the upper $50/bbl region."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Employment Change and 37 pips range price movement 

2017-03-16 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 13.5K
• forecast data is 16.3K
• actual data is -6.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report:

• "Employment decreased 6,400 to 11,998,800. Full-time employment increased 27,100 to 8,158,900 and part-time employment decreased 33,500 to 3,840,000."
• "Unemployment increased 26,000 to 748,100. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 10,800 to 523,800 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work increased 15,100 to 224,300."

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AUD/USD M5: 37 pips range price movement by Australian Employment Change news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - daily bearish breakdown with key support levels to be broken on the way (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal with 100.04 support level to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing. The next bearish continuation level for Dollar Index are 99.59 and 99.18, thus if the price is going to break those support levels to below so the bearish breakdown will be continuing. Otherwise - ranging within the levels.

• "DXY continues to trade on parallels that are defined by the 2016 support line (from the May low). The yearly opening price is 102.38 and could influence for a reaction. I’d also pay attention to 100.39 (March 2015 high…here we are 2 years later by the way…basically unchanged!) for support. A break through one of these levels ideally offers something to work with from a trend perspective."
• "Decision time as DXY is trading 100.39! A weekly close below the level would suggest that the path is lower."

[Sergey Golubev]

S&P 500: End Of Week Technicals - bullish ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price broke 2373/2380 resistance levels to above for the 2390 bnearest bullish target.

If the price breaks 2390 resistance so the bullish trend will be continuing.
If the price breaks 2348 support level to below on close daily bar so the reversal of the price movement to the ranging bearish market condition will be started: the price will be located inside Ichimoku cloud.
if not so the price will be ranging within 2390-2348 levels for direction.

• "The market may not rip to new highs in the same fashion it did in February, and in fact it may meander side-ways for a period of time (a process which could serve the market well given how far it has come in such a short period of time). As long as those trend-lines hold and we don’t see a sharp break through them develop, we look for short-term weakness to find buyers. A close below the confluence of trend-lines and then ultimately a lower low below 2353 would be required to tilt the picture downward."
• "Looking higher, the next true level of resistance doesn’t arrive until the previous record high of 2401.
  Next week is light in terms of scheduled economic events, so the market will likely be driven on good old fashioned supply and demand – markets don’t need a big reason to move."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 19 - March 26 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot due to the Fed’s “dovish hike”. Will the downfall continue? UK inflation data, Yellen’s speech and Durable goods orders are the major events on forex calendar. 

1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK CPI is expected to rise further to 2.1% this time.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% in February.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to be 240,000 this week.
5. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 13:45. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in in Washington DC.
6. US Durable Goods Orders: Friday, 12:30. Orders for long lasting products are expected to gain .1%, while core orders are estimated to rise by 0.5% in February.