Press review - page 494
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USD/JPY - "However, Chair Yellen concluded that ‘a gradual removal of accommodation is likely to be appropriate,’ and it seems as though the central bank may tame the broader outlook for monetary policy as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up, on net, in recent months, although they remain low.’ With Fed officials scheduled to release their updated projections in March, the fresh estimates may reflect minor changes to the growth and inflation forecast, but a further reduction in long-run Fed Fund forecast may drag on market expectations and undermine the recent strength in the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the bar remains high for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to move away from its easing-cycle as inflation remains well below the 2% target, and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish outlook at the March 16 interest rate decision as the Balance of Payment (BoP) report is anticipated to show a trade deficit in January. The deviating paths for monetary policy continues to instill a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY, and the BoJ looks poised to further expand its balance sheet as the central bank pledges to keep the 10-year yield around zero."
GBP/USD - "The week ahead is fairly light with U.K. data, with Friday being the highlight as we receive a batch of medium-importance announcements on industrial and manufacturing production (January figures), trade balance figures (January) and the NIESR GDP estimate for the month of February. The bigger drive to the British currency in the week ahead will likely emanate from foreign themes, such as a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. As Sterling tests historically weak-values on the chart, the litmus for continued losses will likely continue to increase; meaning that data will likely need to print extremely poorly for the longer-term zone of support around the 1.2000 figure to finally give way."
USD/CNH - "The New Yuan loans, a major indicator that may impact the PBOC’s monetary policy, is expected to drop to 920 billion Yuan in February from 2.030 trillion Yuan in the month prior, the second-highest level on record. In order to curb excess liquidity flowing into the housing market and other financial markets, the PBOC has been delicately managing its cash injections through open market operations. The Central Bank withdrew a net of 280 billion Yuan this week and has been removing liquidity from markets for the seventh consecutive trading days. The regulator targets to bring monetary policy back to neutral from slightly loose. Total new credit issued, home loans and property prices are three key gauges that the regulator may use to evaluate whether monetary policy has returned to neutral."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Logic would dictate that a rate hike from the Fed would drive the dollar higher and gold, which yields nothing, lower. That pattern has been seen in the price action of the past couple days. However, if we pan out we can view how the two recent Fed rate hikes were followed by rising gold prices. It is clear from the chart below that increasing rates and even the recent increase in rate hike expectations has driven gold price higher."
S&P 500 - "The S&P 500 rose to new record highs on Wednesday following Trump’s congressional address the night before, but backed off a bit late-week. In a speech on Friday, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen effectively said the Fed plans to move at a faster pace, but not necessarily more hikes than previously anticipated. The market is expecting a rate hike at the March meeting. Given this built-in expectation, outside of a knee-jerk intra-day reaction, the net impact of Yellen’s speech on stocks was negligible. This coming week, the ECB on Thursday has market-moving potential, and then on Friday market participants will turn their attention to the U.S. jobs report. Neither are anticipated at this time to ‘rock’ current sentiment."
Dax Index - "This coming week we have the ECB meeting on Thursday, which could certainly be a source of volatility; most likely, if it is, it will spawn from the press conference with Mario Draghi, as the central bank isn’t expected to make any material changes to current policy. Any strong move which may unfold in the DAX is likely to be inverse to the euro, and with that said, if holding positions in both, risk should be managed accordingly."
FTSE 100 - "The FTSE 100 benefited significantly on Wednesday from strong risk appetite along with a declining pound. Looking ahead to potential drivers this coming week, there aren’t any ‘high’ impact events on the docket for the U.K. The focus is likely to be on general risk appetite, pound weakness, the ECB, and ‘NFP Friday’."
Bitcoin/USD daily price is above Ichimoku cloud to be located in the bullish area of the chart. The price is on bullish breakout which was started in the beginning of the January this year by breaking Ichimoku kumo to above with the bullish reversal. For now, the price is on testing resistance level at 1,259.91 for the bullish breakout to be continuing.
AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australian Retail Sales and 16 pips range price movement
2017-03-06 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)
[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.
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From official report:
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AUD/USD M5: 16 pips range price movement by Australian Retail Sales news event
Deutshe Bank: €8 billion capital increase may not be enough (based on the article)
Daily share price is located above 100-day SMA/200-day SMA in the bullish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 20.70 resistance level to 19.04 levels to be crossing for the secondary correction to be continuing.