Press review - page 493

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD - daily bearish trend to be started with 1.0493 support level (based on the article)

Daily price broke Senkou Span line which is the border of the Ichimoku cloud the the border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend on the chart. The price is trying to test 1.0493 support level to below for the bearish trend to be continuing with 1.0324 daily bearish target.

• "Euro sellers have struggled to maintain downward momentum since the single currency found support below the 1.06 figure against the US Dollar two weeks ago. Still, overall positioning continues to favor continuation of the long term down trend."
• "From here, a daily close below support in the 1.0518-28 area (November 24 low, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion) exposes the 1.0341-67 zone (December 15 low, 38.2% level). Alternatively, a turn above support-turned-resistance at 1.0682 paves the way for a retest of the 38.2% Fib retracement at 1.0828."

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Gross Domestic Product and 35 pips range price movement 

2017-03-02 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

• past data is 1.9%
• forecast data is 1.7%
• actual data is 2.0% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report:

• "Real GDP rose 1.4% in 2016, following more modest growth in 2015 (+0.9%). Final domestic demand grew 0.9%, following a 0.3% increase the previous year. Driven by household consumption expenditure, much of this growth occurred in the first two quarters with a deceleration towards the end of the year. Household consumption expenditure grew 2.2% following a 1.9% gain in 2015. Outlays on both goods (+2.7%) and services (+1.9%) rose."
• "Expressed at an annualized rate, real GDP rose 2.6% in the fourth quarter. In comparison, real GDP in the United States grew 1.9%."

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USD/CAD M5: 35 pips range price movement by Canada's Gross Domestic Product news event

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[Sergey Golubev]

CAC 40 - bullish breakout with 4,972 level to be tested (based on the article)

Daily share price is above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart: the price broke 4,923.90 level to above for the good breakout possibility with 4,972.88 resistance level to be broken for the bullish breakout to be continuing.

• "CAC 40 has blasted to new 2017 highs, as global equities markets continue to rally on new optimism. At this point in Thursday’s trading the CAC 40 is up +0.21%. Top winners for the CAC 40 include Engie SA (+7.81%) and LafarageHolcim (+3.04%). Losers for the day include Essilor International (-1.92%) and Pernod LOreal (-1.02%)."
• "Technically, the CAC 40 is now trending higher in both the long and short terms. The Index is currently trading well above its 10 Day EMA (exponential moving average) after yesterday’s advance. This average is found at 4,904.78, and is now acting as a value short term support for the Index. It should be noted after yesterday’s breakout, that the previous line of resistance found at the February 15th high of 4,943.80 may also be considered as a point of ongoing support on the daily graph."

[Sergey Golubev]

Dollar Index - bullish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. The price is testing 102.27 resistance level to above for the bullish trend to be continuing, otherwise - ranging for the waiting for direction.

• "This week, we’ve seen on the back of multiple Fed speakers the probability of a March Fed Hike surge from below 50% to ~90%. This has aligned cleanly with USD strength. "
• "This week has seen impressive moves in favor of the USD against the British Pound, which looks like it could move back below 1.20 if we break 1.22. Additionally, USD/CAD is sitting at its highest level since the first week of trading in 2017 with a price move above 1.3400. Currently, support for USD/CAD sits near 1.325. Two other impressive moves have been registered by EUR/USD, which recently punched below 1.05 and USD/JPY that may soon make a move toward 116 if the price can close above the 55-DMA at 114.67. However, it’s difficult to get too excited below 114.96, which was the mid-February high, and could be Triangle Pattern Resistance."

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing (adapted from dailyfx)

• "The recent batch of hawkish Fed rhetoric have moved interest-rate expectations, with Fed Fund Futures now pricing a greater than 70% probability for a March rate-hike, and the central bank may stay on course to implement higher borrowing-costs over the coming months especially as the U.S. economy approaches ‘full-employment.’ With that said, signs of stronger service-based activity may encourage Fed Chair Janet Yellen to join her colleagues and endorse a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy with the central bank head scheduled to speak ahead of the blackout period. However, a downtick in business sentiment may push Chair Yellen to tame interest rate expectations as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance,’ and the central bank head may continue to promote a wait-and-see approach as ‘inflation moved up over the past year, mainly because of the diminishing effects of the earlier declines in energy prices and import prices.’"
• "Nevertheless, the slowdown in private-sector lending accompanied by the recent slump in building activity may drag on the U.S. service-sector, and a dismal ISM print may undermine the recent advance in the greenback as it dampens the outlook for growth and inflation."

Bullish USD Trade: Gauge for Service-Based Activity Beats Market Expectations

• "Need a red, five-minute candle subsequent to the release to favor a short EUR/USD position."
• "If market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit."

Bearish USD Trade: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Disappoints

• "Need a green, five-minute candle to encourage a long EUR/USD position."
• "Implement same strategy as the bullish dollar trade, just in reverse."

[Sergey Golubev]

Twitter: daily bearish reversal; 15.58 key support level for the bearish trend to be continuing (adapted from the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the bearish reversal with 15.58 support level to be testing for the bearish breakdown to be continuing.

• "Twitter reported weak Q4 and full year 2016 results last month, with adjusted earnings per share beating market expectations but reported revenue falling far short of analyst consensus estimates. The company’s disappointing sales growth was attributed to lackluster user growth last year. Owing to weak results and lackluster guidance, Twitter’s stock tanked following the earnings announcement on February 10. The company’s stock has lost about 12% of its value in the last year."
• "‌Twitter’s struggle to grow its active user base has been the primary investor concern for the past two years, and that is unlikely to change in the near term. However, with the company redirecting its focus from user expansion to profit generation, the key metrics in focus are likely to become user engagement and average revenue per user going forward."
• "Another trend we are watching closely is growth in video. Video consumption has been growing tremendously over the past few quarters on Periscope as well as the Twitter platform with the launch of auto-play videos. It will be interesting to see if this also translates into higher advertising revenue growth going forward."

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD - daily correction with good breakdown possibility (based on the article)

Daily price is on secondary correction within the primary bullish market condition: price is located above ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart with the correction to be started in the end of February this year. For now, the price is on testing Fibo support level at 0.7242 to below for the correction to be continuing. Chinkou Span line is located near and above the price to be ready for the break the historical price to below for good possible breakdown.

• "The AUD/USD is trading into key values of support, as the pair has fallen as much as 199 pips from the standing yearly high at .7741."
• "Technically the AUD/USD is trending lower in the short term, trading well below its 10 day EMA (exponential moving average), found at .7634. This short term decline in price has now pushed the pair to test the 200 Day MVA (Simple Moving Average), found at .7546. This line should be considered as a critical line of support, and a breakout below this point may suggest a shift in the AUD/USD’s long term trend. If prices fail to breakout however, it may suggest that this most recent decline has been a retracement in an ongoing 2017 uptrend."

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 05 - March 12 (based on the article)

Rate decision in Australia and the Eurozone, Employment data from Canada and the US including the ADP report followed by the all-important NFP release.

• Australian rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. The RBA monitors the recent increase in lending to property investors and further data about the economy’s performance to determine its next move.
• US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Wednesday, 13:15.
• US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 15:30.
• Eurozone rate decision: Thursday, 12:45. The head of the central bank Mario Draghi said the Eurozone economy is stronger, but still fragile and requires more time to rebound. Therefore monetary stimulus may still be raised if required.
• US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 13:30. Following the positive condition in the labor market together with rising inflation will push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.
• Canadian employment data: Friday, 13:30. 
• US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate: Friday, 13:30. Economists expected an increase of 170,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7%. 

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, March 05 - March 12 (based on the article)

EUR/USD struggled but eventually chose the lower end of the range, due to USD strength. Will it totally break down or drift back up? The big event of the week is undoubtedly the ECB decision, which also consists of new forecasts.

1. Retail PMI: Monday, 9:10.
2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30.
3. German Factory Orders: Tuesday, 7:00. The volatile indicator is not likely to repeat the big bounce.
4. GDP (revised): Tuesday, 10:00.
5. German Industrial Production: Wednesday, 7:00.
6. French Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:45.
7. Rate decision: Thursday: decision at 12:45, press conference at 13:30. Draghi would prefer to keep the euro low and not to talk about tapering or ending QE. The ECB currently buys 80 billion euros per month, but the amount will be reduced to 60 billion from April and set to run until the end of the year. See the full ECB preview: acknowledging reality or playing it down?
8. German Trade Balance: Friday, 7:00.
9. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45.

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "For general sentiment next week, it is important to appreciate that global monetary policy – between extreme accommodation for access to cheap funds to normalization as a showing of optimism for the economy – has proven an ineffective motivator. Far more prominent is the still vague outlook for global trade policy. This past week, US President Donald Trump revived his references to tax reform and a $1 trillion stimulus program at his address to the joint session of Congress. Mere mention of these programs in the past led to weeks’ long advance in capital markets for significant traction. The half-life and ultimate reach of this most recent update was a day and comparably limited. Keeping close tabs on the President’s social media accounts is advisable for those that want to maintain a cautious posture on the market."