Press review - page 434

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product and 30 pips price movement

2016-09-14 22:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

• past data is 0.9%
• forecast data is 1.1%
• actual data is 0.9% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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NZD/USD M5: 30 pips price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Trading News Events: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision (adapted from the article)

• "The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may trigger a short-squeeze in British Pound and generate a relief rally in GBP/USD should the central bank talk down bets for an imminent rate-cut."
• "Even though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) warns ‘a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower,’ the BoE may preserve the current policy throughout the remainder of the year as there appears to be a limited risk for a U.K. recession. With Deputy Governor Minouche Shafik scheduled to depart in February, Governor Mark Carney and Co. may endorse a wait-and-see approach for the foreseeable future as the central bank sees a risk of overshooting the 2% inflation-target over the policy horizon."

Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Implements Range of New Easing Measures

• "Need green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long GBP/USD trade."
• "If market reaction favors a long sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate position."
• "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward."
  
• "Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit."

Bearish GBP Trade: MPC Sticks with Status Quo

• "Need red, five-minute candle to favor a short GBP/USD trade."
• "Implement same setup as the bullish British Pound trade, just in reverse."

Daily price is located below 200-day SMA (200 SMA) and 100-day SMA (100 SMA) in the bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within the narrow support resistance levels waiting for the direction of the bearish trend to be resumed or the secondary bear market rally to be started. descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish continuation, and RSI indicator is estimating the ranging condition to be continuing in the bear future.

• If D1 price breaks 1.3444 resistance level to above on close daily bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
  
• If price breaks 1.3137 support to below on close daily bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed with 1.2865 nearest daily target.
  
• If not so the price will be ranging within the levels.

(all images/charts were made using Metatrader 5 software and free indicators from MQL5 CodeBase)

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: BoE Official Rate and 62 pips price movement

2016-09-15 11:00 GMT | [GBP - Official Bank Rate]

• past data is 0.25%
• forecast data is 0.25%
• actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Official Bank Rate] = Interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight.

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The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment.  At its meeting ending on 14 September 2016, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.  The Committee voted unanimously to continue with the programme of sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases totalling up to £10 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.  The Committee also voted unanimously to continue with the programme of £60 billion of UK government bond purchases to take the total stock of these purchases to £435 billion, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves.

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GBP/USD M5: 62 pips price movement by BoE Official Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales and U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.1%
• forecast data is -0.1%
• actual data is -0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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2016-09-15 12:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

• past data is 2.0
• forecast data is 1.1
• actual data is 12.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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EUR/USD M5: 20 pips price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

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USD/CAD M5: 57 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

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AUD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by U.S. Retail Sales and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index news events

[Sergey Golubev]

MT4 Vs. MT5 – Which One Should You Use?

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD: trading near 1.3198 level for direction (adapted from the article)

M30 intra-day price was on breakout: the price broke 100 SMA level to above for the possible bullish reversal. But the price was bounced from 200 SMA to below for the breakdpown of the price movement. GBP/USD price is traded near 1.3198 level for the bearish breakout to be continuing or to the bear market rally to be started.

"The GBP/USD is trading near daily lows after the BOE (Bank of England) kept key interest rates flat at 0.25%. While it was expected that rates would be kept flat, the Pound is still losing ground to the majors as traders are speculating that rates may be cut in the future. Technically the GBP/USD is currently finding support at a short-term retracement value near 1.3193. This area is represented in the graph below as a 61.8% retracement from yesterday’s low of 1.3138 to the high of 1.3278. Now traders will wait to see if prices recover here, or if the Cable is set to decline further in the short term."

The most likely scenario for the price movement for today is the following: the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Monthly Survey of Manufacturing and 30 pips price movement

2016-09-16 12:30 GMT | [CAD - Manufacturing Sales]

• past data is 0.8%
• forecast data is 0.6%
• actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Manufacturing Sales] = Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers.

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"Manufacturing sales edged up 0.1% in July to $50.7 billion. Higher sales in the food, petroleum and coal products, and primary metals industries were largely offset by a decrease in the production of aerospace product and parts, and by lower machinery sales."

"Overall, sales were up in 9 of 21 industries, representing about 54% of the manufacturing sector. Non-durable goods rose 1.0% to $23.6 billion, while durable goods decreased 0.7% to $27.0 billion."

"Constant dollar sales increased 0.6%, indicating that a higher volume of goods was sold in July."

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USD/CAD M5: 30 pips price movement by Canada's Monthly Survey of Manufacturing news event

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Consumer Price Index and 40 pips price movement

2016-09-16 12:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.0%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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"The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD M5: 40 pips price movement by U.S. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

Weekly Outlook: 2016, September 18 - September 25 (based on the article)

The US dollar had a positive week, resisting unconvincing data. Now comes the biggest test: the Fed decision. In addition, we have US Building Permits, rate decisions in Japan and in New Zealand, as well as other events. These are the main events for this week.

1. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. The number of new residential permits is expected to rise to 1.17 million in August.
2. Stephen Poloz speaks: Tuesday, 17:45. BOC Governor Stephen Poloz will speak in Quebec.
3. Japan rate decision: Wednesday.
4. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
5. US Fed Decision: Wednesday: statement and projections at 18:00, Yellen’s press conference at 18:30. 
6. NZ rate decision: Wednesday, 21:00. Governor Graeme announced new lending restrictions for property investors to cool the housing market and enable further rate cuts in the coming months.
7. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. Economists expect the number of claims will reach 261,000 this week.

[Sergey Golubev]

Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CNH and GOLD (based on the article)

Dollar Index - "In the event of full-scale risk aversion, the Dollar will not immediately jump to its haven status. Rather, the first phase of sentiment souring would be a diminished economic outlook and the subsequent loss of further yield potential. The more rapidly confidence falls apart, the better for USD as it will revive the absolute safe haven role. Sentiment however does not just hang on the Fed alone. We have seen volatility and volume rise through other contributions this past week. The BoJ’s quickly failing credibility along with the all-out doves could spark fears for the end of a stimulus-supported market boom. Brexit fears stirred this past week could infect deeper financial flaws. Or, the ‘animal spirits’ themselves could rise. Watch sentiment and the Fed through these tenuous times."

GBP/USD - "In turn, GBP/USD may continue to shed the advance from the August low (1.2854), with the exchange rate failing to preserve the monthly opening range, and the pair may ultimately threaten the post ‘Brexit’ wedge/triangle formation in the days ahead should the FOMC meeting boost interest-rate expectations. However, the pair may continue to consolidate within the near-term holding pattern if Fed officials largely endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy and show a greater willingness to further delay the normalization cycle."

AUD/USD - "Although Fed officials have claimed that every policy meeting may produce a rate hike, their clear desire not to trigger market panic suggests that they will not opt to change things without an opportunity to thoroughly explain in detail. This means that after this week’s outing, the next opportunity for stimulus withdrawal comes in December. Between now and then, another opportunity to update traders will come in November, offering the FOMC a chance to up- or down-shift the projected rate hike path and limit surprise risk. Keeping this flexibility will mean that the narrative emerging from the upcoming announcement will need to be cautious but unmistakably hawkish. This bodes ill for risk appetite as well as the Aussie’s yield advantage, threatening to deliver the currency a third consecutive weekly loss."

NZD/USD - "We’re going to hold a neutral forecast on the New Zealand Dollar for the week ahead, with a warning of caution around this upcoming RBNZ meeting as the bank will be making the announcement in what could be extremely volatile market conditions in the wake of FOMC."

USD/CAD - "The heavy economic data points this week will take place on Friday, which will be after the dust settles from the international development such as the Central Bank triple-header on September 21. On Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will be speaking in Quebec City, which will be followed by a press conference. Friday will provide the Canadian Dollar an opportunity to reverse its trend of negative economic surprises with Retail Sales (exp. -0.1 MoM), and the Consumer Price Index (exp. 1.3% YoY.) Because this is the key gauge for inflation in Canada, a disappointment here coupled with positive developments south of the Canadian Border could put further selling pressure on the Loonie."

USD/CNH - "Next week, traders will want to watch two indicators for clues of the lower bound of the USD/CNH: A) The PBOC’s guidance – the last Yuan fix issued by the PBOC before the holiday was 6.6726. The USD/CNH has already traded below this level. Yuan’s reference rate set after the reopen of onshore markets could tell us whether the Central Bank confirms this Yuan strength. B) HIBOR rates: tightened Yuan liquidity will increase the cost of shorting the Yuan and thus could hold the USD/CNH at low levels. The average level of HIBOR O/N in August was 1.41% and the average over the past 12 months was 2.56%. If the HIBOR read on next Monday is still significantly higher than these levels, it may indicate uneased condition in offshore and a stronger Yuan."

GOLD (XAU/USD) - "Gold is eyeing a key near-term support confluence into the close of the week at 1302/04 where the 100% extension of the decline off the early high converges on the 100-day moving average, the monthly low & the May high. The immediate downside bias is at risk while above this level near-term with initial resistance eyed at the monthly low-day close at 1323 backed by 1330."