Press review - page 433

[Sergey Golubev]

Credit Agricole: Get Ready For Volatile Week (based on the article)

• "EUR should remain relatively supported in the aftermath of the September ECB meeting, which highlighted that the Governing Council may find it hard to add further stimulus in response to a persistently challenging economic outlook."
• "The USD-bulls may have to endure another volatile week, with August retail sales and industrial production likely to attract considerable attention. That said, we note that various Fed officials have signalled willingness to proceed with rate normalisation despite disappointing data of late. With the market rate hike expectations relative low at present, we believe that any positive economic surprises should have a disproportionately greater impact on USD."
• "We believe that the Fed is closer to hiking rates than rates markets seem to believe, while both the BoJ and the ECB are struggling to add fresh stimulus."

[Sergey Golubev]

Short GBPUSD An Attractive Relative Value Trade by BNPP (based on the article)

• "Market positioning has adjusted to reflect the shift in rate hike expectations for the BOE and the Fed, with cable short positioning recovering sharply from an extreme short position in July to only a modestly short position now. The short covering process could have further to run in the near term, but the lightening of positions should ultimately create opportunities for shorts."
• "Short GBPUSD is likely to be an attractive trade again as we move into autumn."

Weekly price is located below Ichimoku cloud for the ranging condition within the narrow support/resistance levels:

• 1.3444 resistance level located in the beginning of the local uptrend as the bear market rally to be started, and
• 1.2865 support level located in the bearish area to be resumed.

Absolute Strength indicator is estimating the ranging trend to be continuing for the following few months for example.

Most likely scenario for the weekly price in the medium term situation is the following: bearish ranging within the narrow levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.

[Sergey Golubev]

DAX Index: Levels to watch - intra-day bearish breakdown (based on the article)

Hi price broke 100 SMA/200 SMA reversal area to berlow for the bearish market condition. The price is on ranging within 10,440 resistance and 10,319 support level for this morning.

• "The DAX has attempted to regain ground this morning, following the dramatic deterioration we saw Since Friday. The first major resistance level of note here is the key swing low of 10,438, which price has failed to regain."
• "Given the long upper wicks evident on the hourly chart, it seems relatively likely we will see this market start to weaken once more. However, be aware that any failure to fall below 10,311 could set us up for a rebound, given the higher lower scenario."

If H1 price breaks 10,440 resistance to above on close bar so the secondary rally within the primary bearish trend will be started with 10,474 level as a nearest target to re-enter.
If H1 price breaks 10,319 support level to below on close bar so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Industrial Production and 24 pips price movement

2016-09-13 02:00 GMT | [CNY - Industrial Production]

• past data is 6.0%
• forecast data is 6.2%
• actual data is 6.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Industrial Production] = Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.

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From News Dog article:

• "A trio of data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics vouched for the vibrancy of the world's second largest economy, with industrial production, retail sales and investment growth for August all exceeding economists' expectations."
• "Industrial production growth improved to 6.3 percent in August from 6 percent in July. This was the fastest expansion since March, when output climbed 6.8 percent. Production was expected to rise 6.2 percent."
• "Retail sales advanced 10.6 percent annually, faster than the 10.2 percent increase seen in July. This was the biggest growth seen so far this year. Economists had expected the growth to remain at 10.2 percent."
• "During January to August, fixed asset investment growth held steady at 8.1 percent, while it was forecast to ease to 7.9 percent. The growth of private investment in fixed asset also stayed unchanged at 2.1 percent."
• "Another report from the Ministry of Finance showed that government spending advanced 10.3 percent in August from prior year."
• "Better-than-expected data out of China today raises hopes that policymakers' efforts to reverse the slide in investment growth are seeing some success, Julian Evans-Pritchard at Capital Economics, said."

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USD/CNH M5: 24 pips price movement by China Industrial Production news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and 31 pips range price movement

2016-09-13 08:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.7%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

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CPI 12-month inflation rate for the last 10 years: August 2006 to August 2016:

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GBP/USD M5: 31 pips range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Aussie Rejected at 0.77 Figure (based on the article)

H4 price is on bearish condition located below 100 SMA/200 SMA: price was bounced from 0.7731 resistance level to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal. Fow now, the price is on bearish ranging within narrow support/resistance levels: 0.7567 resistance and 0.7493 support.

• "The Australian Dollar faltered at familiar resistance near 0.77 against its US counterpart having rebounded as expected after forming a Morning Star candlestick pattern. The bounce saw a retest of broken trend line support-turned-resistance, with subsequent losses potentially marking longer-term down trend resumption."
• "Prices are too close to near-term support to justify entering short from a risk/reward perspective. Opting for the sidelines seems prudent for now, waiting for the pair to offer a better-defined opportunity to sell in line with the emerging bearish bias."

If H4 price breaks 0.7567 resistance level to above on close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If H4 price breaks 0.7493 support level to below so the primary bearish trend will be resumed.
If not so the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels.

• Recommendation for long: watch close D1 price to break 0.7567 for possible buy trade
• Recommendation to go short: watch D1 price to break 0.7493 support level for possible sell trade
  
• Trading Summary: ranging
  

Resistance	Support
0.7567	0.7493
0.7731	N/A

SUMMARY : bearish

TREND : ranging

[Sergey Golubev]

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Current Account and 11 pips range price movement

2016-09-13 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Current Account]

• past data is 1.18B
• forecast data is -0.30B
• actual data is -0.95B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

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NZD/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by NZ Current Account news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment and 12 pips range price movement

2016-09-14 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment]

• past data is 2.0%
• forecast data is n/a
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Westpac Consumer Sentiment] = Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

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From thebull.com.au article:

"Consumer confidence: The Westpac/Melbourne Institute survey of consumer sentiment rose by 0.3 per cent in September to 101.4. The confidence index is up 8.0 per cent on a year ago. The survey was conducted between September 5 and September 9. That is, the survey period covered the interest rate decision and economic growth data."
"Wisest place for savings: Banks (chosen by 29.9 per cent of respondents) were regarded as the wisest place for new savings from “Pay Debt” (21.0 per cent) and Real Estate (15.4 per cent)."

"Less certain: Over 5 per cent of respondents don’t know the best place to put new savings."

"These are uncertain times. And that is shown by the views of Aussie consumers regarding the best place to put new savings. Before 2015, Aussie consumers had firm views about where to put new savings. But over the past year, the proportion of people unsure about the best place to put new savings has lifted to the highest levels on record. In March this year 7 per cent of people said that they didn’t know the wisest place for savings. The latest survey result showed that the proportion of undecided consumers was still high at 5.3 per cent."

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AUD/USD M5: 12 pips range price movement by Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment news event

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Jobless Claims and 27 pips range price movement

2016-09-14 08:30 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

• past data is -3.6K
• forecast data is 1.7K
• actual data is 2.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

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UK Claimant Count (people), seasonally adjusted
August 2011 to August 2016

For August 2016 there were 771,000 people claiming unemployment related benefits. This was:

• 2,400 more than for July 2016
• 21,300 fewer than for a year earlier

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GBP/USD M5: 27 pips range price movement by U.K. Jobless Claims news event

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and 29 pips price movement

2016-09-15 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 26.2K
• forecast data is 15.2K
• actual data is -3.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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• Employment decreased 3,900 to 11,963,700. Full-time employment increased 11,500 to 8,166,100 and part-time employment decreased 15,400 to 3,797,700.
• Unemployment decreased 10,500 to 713,300. The number of unemployed persons looking for full-time work increased 14,900 to 496,900 and the number of unemployed persons only looking for part-time work decreased 25,400 to 216,400.
• Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 5.6%.
• Participation rate decreased 0.2 pts to 64.7%.
• Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.9 million hours to 1,656.0 million hours.

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AUD/USD M5: 29 pips price movement by Australia Employment Change news event