Forecast for Q1'17 - levels for NZD/USD - page 2

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.02.27 15:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, NZD/USD and Dollar Index: U.S. Durable Goods Orders

2017-02-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -0.5%
• forecast data is 1.6%
• actual data is 1.8% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From rttnews article:

• "The report said durable goods orders jumped by 1.8 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.8 percent in December."
• "Excluding a sharp increase in orders for transportation equipment, durable goods orders edged down by 0.2 percent in January following a revised 0.9 percent advance in December."

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EUR/USD M5: 19 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events

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NZD/USD M5: 11 pips range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Durable Goods Orders news events

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.08 12:59

NZD/USD Technical Outlook: breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on breakdown to be started in 1st of March this year: price broke Ichimoku cloud to below to be reversed from the bullish to the primary bearish market condition with 0.6947/0.6933 resistance levelss to be testing for the bearish trend to be continuing.

• "The plunge in NZDUSD has seen it all the way back down to an important trend-line rising up from August 2015, where it spiked down to just under 6200. Also in the vicinity is horizontal support running back to June. The two angles of support are creating confluence, which makes the area in the mid-6900s very important. "
• "How NZDUSD responds here will be telling. It is currently trading below support, but that could change by day's end; putting in a reversal day. So we'll wait until the end of the New York session before drawing any concrete conclusions. Kiwi is known for sharp reversals after extended moves, and so it shouldn’t take long to turn higher, if it is to do so. With that in mind, should we see a bounce, but with little pep in its step over the next few days then it may not be long after before it attempts to break support and seek out those beforementioned levels. On the top-side, the first notable level of resistance we will look to on a rally is the trend-line running off the 2/7 high."

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.18 10:44

Weekly Outlook: 2017, March 19 - March 26 (based on the article)

The US dollar was on the back foot due to the Fed’s “dovish hike”. Will the downfall continue? UK inflation data, Yellen’s speech and Durable goods orders are the major events on forex calendar. 

1. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 9:30. UK CPI is expected to rise further to 2.1% this time.
2. US Crude Oil Inventories: Wednesday, 14:30.
3. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 1.75% in February.
4. US Unemployment Claims: Thursday, 12:30. The number of new claims is expected to be 240,000 this week.
5. Janet Yellen speaks: Thursday, 13:45. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak in in Washington DC.
6. US Durable Goods Orders: Friday, 12:30. Orders for long lasting products are expected to gain .1%, while core orders are estimated to rise by 0.5% in February.

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.23 09:10

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate and 42 pips range price movement 

2017-03-22 20:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

• past data is 1.75%
• forecast data is 1.75%
• actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report:

• "The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent.""Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly."

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NZD/USD M5: 42 pips range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

[Sergey Golubev]

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.03.25 12:34

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for NZD/USD (based on the article)

NZD/USD - "A recent report from rating’s agency Moody’s Investor Services gave the Government of New Zealand the thumbs-up and re-affirmed the country’s Aaa rating. Moody’s said that it expects New Zealand to be among the fastest growing Aaa-rated economies in the coming years. They agency added that while the economy is small and open, in the event of shocks the economy “responds swiftly and positively to a weaker exchange rate and lower interest rates, as seen in recent years. Exchange-rate and interest-rate sensitive sectors such as tourism and construction generate economic activity and jobs to support income.”"