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Weekly Outlook: 2016, July 24 - July 31 (based on the article)
A busy week saw plenty of action in the yen and the pound, and a stronger dollar in general. A jey German survey, GDP data from the UK Canada and the US and rate decisions in the US and in Japan stand out. These are the major events on forex calendar.
Fundamental Weekly Forecasts for Dollar Index, USD/JPY, USD/CNH, AUD/USD and GOLD (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "There is little chance that the Fed hikes at this upcoming meeting with even the Fed Fund futures 10 percent probability looking generous. Where there is potential to ease dovish skepticism and lift the Dollar is through rhetoric that reinforces at least one hike in 2016 as December futures only place a move at 47 percent. Yet, what appetite to front-run some negligible increase to rates will pale in comparison to the appeal that arises from the sentiment that arises from the central bank merely feeling confident in keeping with a gradual pace of removing accommodation. In contrast to major counterparts who are still tempting ever more extreme and event experimental easing efforts to avert economic and financial trouble, any hawkish view poses a vote of stability that will draw safety and speculative interests alike."
USD/JPY - "The BoJ may stick to the sidelines as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledges to unveil a ‘bold’ fiscal stimulus package to encourage a stronger recovery, and Governor Haruhiko Kuroda may continue to defy market expectations as the central bank head appears to be ruling out the possibility for ‘helicopter money.’ With that said, the BoJ may keep the door open to further embark on its easing cycle, but more of the same from the central bank may derail speculation for more non-standard measures as the board continues to monitor the impact of the negative-interest rate policy (NIRP). Moreover, the weakening outlook for the global economy may spur greater demand for the Yen as Japan’s Balance of Payments (BoP) report is anticipated to show the Trade Balance returning to a surplus in June, and USD/JPY may largely conform to the downward trend from earlier this year as the region turns to its historical role as a net-lender to the rest of the world."
USD/CNH - "Thus, even if the US Dollar continues to strengthen on the 2Q GDP print or a more hawkish monetary policy, the Dollar/Yuan rates may return to levels below 6.7 but not necessarily break the key level under the close watch of the PBOC. This may partially result from regulator’s intention of stabilizing the Yuan ahead of G-20 meetings to be held in China on July 23rd and 24th. More importantly, slowing the pace of Yuan depreciation will help to stabilize China’s financial markets and avoid chaos. Besides the likely upper band for Dollar/Yuan pairs, the Central Bank’s exchange rate target may also place a floor for the pairs. In order to maintain the Yuan’s stability against a basket of currencies, the USD/CNY pair will need to offset moves in other Yuan pairs in the currency basket. For instance, if Bank of Japan cuts rates or introduces easing measures next week, it is likely to send CNY/JPY higher. And this will put pressure on the USD/CNY pair to even out gains from the CNY/JPY. Thus, Dollar/Yuan moves in the next week will likely remain within a range."
AUD/USD - "Should CPI contract yet again, expect the Australian Dollar to trade lower under the anticipation of a cut coming in August: And even if that inflation print comes-in in-line with last quarter’s read, markets will likely continue to expect dovishness out of the RBA until some element of strength is seen in the Australian economy. Should CPI show above the prior high set in Q4 2015 of 108.4, we’ll likely see rate-cut bets price-out of the market with an extremely strong Aussie; but this appears to be a distant possibility from where we sit now given the global drag on growth that’s been seen in most developed economies of recent. The forecast on the Australian Dollar will be set to bearish for the week ahead."
GOLD (XAU/USD) - "From a technical standpoint, our outlook for gold remains unchanged from last week. Key near-term confluence support extends into 1303/08 with the immediate short-bias at risk heading into this zone. With that said, the region could prompt a near-term recovery- look for initial resistance at 1337 backed by our bearish invalidation level at 1359 (both areas of interest for possible exhaustion / short-entries)."
Weekly Outlook by Morgan Stanley and EUR/USD Intra-Day Technical Analysis (adapted from the article)
"This week's ECB meeting provided few surprises and did not commit to easing in September. Our view is even if they do cut by 10bps, in line with our economists' expectations, it will not do much for EUR given banking sector weakness and already extremely low yields. The EBA's stress test needs to be watched as it could bring EMU's banking sector back into focus. We still see upside potential for EUR in the medium term on the basis of real yield differentials, and like buying against USD and particularly GBP."
H1 price is located below SMA with period 100 (100 SMA) and below SMA with the period 200 (200 SMA) waiting for the bearish trend to be continuing or to the bear market rally to be started.
SUMMARY : ranging
TREND : bearishEUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and and 15 pips price movement
2016-07-25 08:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers.
==========
"Sentiment in the German economy weakened slightly in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 108.7 points in June to 108.3 points in July. This was due to far less optimistic business expectations on the part of companies. Assessments of the current business situation, by contrast, improved slightly. The German economy proves resilient."
==========
EUR/USD M5: 15 pips price movement by German Ifo Business Climate news event
Dax Index Weekly Outlook - possible weekly bullish reversal (adapted from the article)
"Germany’s DAX Index climbed 1 percent, with 28 of its 30 companies advancing. It was one of the biggest gainers in western Europe. France’s CAC 40 Index added 0.7 percent, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.1 percent."
Weekly price is on bear market rally for resistance level at 10,372.5 to be testing for the 10,519.9 level as a nearest target to re-enter. If the price breaks this 10,519.9 resistance level to above so the reversal of the price movement from the bearish to the primary bullish condition will be started, otherwise - the price will be on bearish ranging within the levels near 'reversal' Senkou Span line and Ichimoku cloud.
Technical Targets for EUR/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
H4 price is located below 100 SMA/200 SMA on the bearish area of the chart within the following narrow support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing.
Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for EUR/USD for the bearish market condition to be continuing with 1.0905/10 possible daily target:
"The daily closing below 1.0995 indicates that EUR has started on a move lower to 1.0905/10 (low on the day of Brexit) with decent odds of extending further to 1.0820 (low in early March). The bearish phase just started and in order to maintain the current momentum, any short-term rebound should not move back above 1.1040."
Technical Targets for GBP/USD by United Overseas Bank (based on the article)
H4 price is located below 200 SMA and near 100 SMA: the price is testing 1.3064 support level for the bearish trend to be resumed. Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed for the bearish market condition.
Daily price. United Overseas Bank is considering for GBP/USD for the secondary ranging market condition to be continuing:
"The choppy trading over the last several trading days has resulted in a mixed outlook for GBP. We continue to hold a neutral view and expect this pair to trade in a broad 1.2960/1.3320 range for now."
Opinion: Oil prices slide on oversupply (based on the article)
Morgan Stanley:
"The potential for larger-than-normal stock builds is growing. With the market increasingly trading on DOE (U.S. Department of Energy) stats, this could be a catalyst for additional downside. As a result, crude oil demand from refineries is underperforming product demand by a wide margin."
Barclays:
"Global oil demand in the third quarter of 2016 was expanding at less than a third of the year-earlier rate, weighed down by anaemic economic growth. Demand support from developed economies had faded, while growth from China and India had slowed."
Energy Aspects:
"The oil market was beginning to show small signs of "normalcy" in supply-and-demand balances. Crude markets are slowly tightening and are now more resilient in the face of falling refinery demand for crude. We do not mean that the rebalancing is over, or even close to being over, but nevertheless, we are now in a new market paradigm where the steps towards normalcy begin."
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
How to Start with Metatrader 5
Sergey Golubev, 2013.08.13 18:50
Good article, and for now - this article was translated to Chinese language (together with the iother 3 articles related to Job, Market etc) :
A Few Tips for First-Time Customers
EUR/USD Daily: Smallest 20 Day Range in 2 Years (based on the article)
"Since the day after the Brexit vote, EUR/USD has been trading in a fairly tight trading range on low volume. In fact, the highest high to the lowest low for the past 20 trading days is the tightest range seen in EUR/USD since August 2014. Beginning June 24 to today, the highest high is 1.1185 and the lowest low price is 1.0951. Therefore, if price pushes down to 1.0900-1.0951, we could see some volatility kick up as traders jockey for bullish support versus a bearish break."
"All of this points towards a market condition geared towards range bound strategies in EUR/USD until we see a break of the post Brexit range of 1.0951 – 1.1185. Even still, a break of this range doesn’t necessarily negate the potential for range bound conditions."
Daily price is on bearish ranging within very narrow support/resistance levels:
Descending triangle pattern was formed by the price to be crossed to below for the bearish trend to be continuing/
If the price breaks 1.0951 support level to below on daily close bar so the primary bearish trend will be continuing with 1.0911 bearish target to re-enter.
If the price breaks 1.1079 resistance level to above on daily close bar so the local uptrend as the bear market rally will be started.
If the price breaks 1.1164 resistance level to above so we may see the bullish reversal to be started on this timeframe.