Continuing from 14 Sep's update — gold had undershot to $4,292 briefly before recovering to $4,336.51. This time the break was more decisive: price closed below $4,300 across several H4 candles, falling to $4,253.96 — the deepest test yet — before recovering back above $4,300 to $4,322.73.
Price: $4,322.73 | Timeframe: H4
Key Levels
🔴 Resistance: $4,700 — high was $4,696.86, capped the 24–25 Aug rally
🟡 Resistance: $4,565–$4,630 — broken pivot shelf, still well overhead
🟡 Resistance: $4,424–$4,456 — held again, rejected near $4,409
🟢 Support: $4,300–$4,395 — confirmed break to $4,253.96, now reclaiming
Setup
This is a meaningfully different test than the last two — a real break with follow-through, not just a wick. The fact that price has already climbed back above $4,300 is notable, but one bounce doesn't undo a confirmed breakdown. Whether this becomes a false break (bullish) or just a pause before the next leg down depends on whether $4,300 holds as support from here.
Breakout / Recovery Scenario
Trigger: Reclaim and close above $4,456
Target: $4,565 → $4,630
Invalidation: Close back below $4,300
Breakdown Scenario
Trigger: Confirmed H4 close below $4,300
Target: $4,230 → $4,200
Invalidation: Reclaim above $4,395
Technical analysis for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Chart: user's own H4 XAUUSD terminal.
