📈 The Danger of Increasing Lot Size After a Winner (Hidden Greed Risk)

📈 The Danger of Increasing Lot Size After a Winner (Hidden Greed Risk)

🎯 The Lesson

You win a trade.
Confidence goes up.
You feel “in sync” with the market.
So you increase lot size on the next trade.

This feels logical — but it’s one of the most dangerous risk mistakes traders make.
Increasing size after a win turns discipline into gambling faster than almost anything else.

⚙️ 1. Why Bigger Size After a Win Is a Trap

Markets don’t reward confidence — they reward consistency.
A winning trade does not increase your edge.
It only increases your account balance slightly.

When you increase size immediately after a win, you’re assuming:
❌ the next trade has higher probability
❌ the market will behave the same
❌ you’re “hot”

None of these are true.
Each trade is independent.

📊 2. The Math of the Mistake

Example:

• Account: $10,000

• Normal risk: 1% = $100

You win +2R → account = $10,200

Then you increase risk to 2%:

• New risk = $204

If the next trade loses:

• Loss = –$204

• Net result after two trades = –$4, despite a winning setup first

One emotional size increase erased the previous win.

🔁 3. How This Leads to Equity Curve Instability

This pattern creates:

• jagged equity curves

• deeper drawdowns

• inconsistent performance

• emotional decision-making

Your account starts growing in steps up and falls down in elevators.
That’s not sustainable trading — it’s variance abuse.

🧮 4. The Professional Rule: Size Increases Are Time-Based, Not Trade-Based

Professionals increase size only when:
✔️ equity is at a new high
✔️ performance is stable over weeks, not trades
✔️ drawdown is minimal
✔️ risk rules were respected

Never increase size because of:
❌ one win
❌ a good day
❌ a “feeling”
❌ revenge or excitement

📉 5. Use a Fixed-Risk Block System

Example system:

• Trade 20 trades at 1% risk

• Review performance

• Only then adjust risk to 1.25% or 1.5%

This keeps growth smooth and controlled.
Funds use this exact logic.

🛑 6. What to Do After a Big Win Instead

After a strong win:
✔️ keep the same size
✔️ protect capital
✔️ avoid overtrading
✔️ wait for the next valid setup
✔️ let expectancy do the work

Winning is not a signal to change rules.
It’s a signal to keep following them.

🚀 Takeaway

Increasing lot size after a winner feels smart — but it’s hidden greed, not strategy.
Growth comes from structured scaling, not emotional escalation.

If you want long-term consistency:
win → stay disciplined
lose → stay disciplined
flat → stay disciplined

That’s how professionals grow accounts quietly and safely.

📢 Join my MQL5 channel for more trading & risk-management insights:
👉 https://www.mql5.com/en/channels/issam_kassas