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Thursday, July 12th
The EUR/USD pair corrects from its weekly lows, marked on the level of 1.1665 a day before. Today US bulls continue to keep control over the market, as the greenback shows notable gains against its Asian rivals, such as the yen and yuan. It seems that the US-China trade dispute remains the underlying theme across the market, thus setting a broad market trend. According to the latest news headlines, Trump administration is planning to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which further escalates tensions between the US and China. In addition, yesterday’s US PPI figures also positively affected the demand for the US dollar. But now all market’s attention remains glued to the ECB meeting minutes, where investors are hoping to find additional details regarding the timing of the rate hike next year. Moreover, the US will release today inflation figures, which will also help the pair to form its near-term trajectory this Thursday.
The USD/CAD pair remains positive after yesterday’s BoC meeting, keeping its positions above the level of 1.3200. As it was widely expected the BoC increased its interest rate by 25 bps, however, the following statement showed that the Bank is not so optimistic. The regulator noted that further monetary policy remains highly data dependent and one more rate hike this year is unlikely. Also Governor S. Poloz pointed out risks related to a situation on the world political arena and US tariffs in particular. As a result, the loonie came under bearish control, allowing the pair to test its weekly highs in the vicinity of 1.3220. In the day ahead, investors will focus their attention on another risky event of this week – the release of US inflation figures, which is scheduled on the NA session.
The GBP/USD pair remains pressured by several bearish factors, keeping its positions near the level of 1.3200. The pound continues to stay defensive on the back of lack of positive news regarding Brexit. Earlier this week UK PM T. May offered third option to resolve Brexit issues, which could keep both sides satisfied. However, the parliament criticized Ms. May’s proposal and five key members of the UK's Brexit department have resigned from their posts in protest, which puts notable pressure on the pound. Moreover, broad demand for safety, sparked by recent news that the US is planning to implement fresh tariffs on Chinese imports, also negatively affects the higher-yielding UK currency. As for the data, today UK won’t surprise markets with anything important, while the US will release inflation data, which will be able to bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair caught fresh wave of bids and refreshed its half-year highs on the level of 112.38, despite broad risk aversion. It seems that the yen today is totally ignoring broad cautiousness, backed by recent headlines, saying that the White House is planning to implement additional tariffs to Chinese imports. Notable bullish momentum of the pair can be mainly explained by high correlation of the yen with the pack of Asian currencies, and especially with Chinese yuan, which is strongly suffering from the trade war of world’s two biggest economies. On the data front, today the US will publish inflation data during the NA session, however, widespread trend will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair on Thursday.
Major events of the day:
ECB Meeting Minutes – 14.30 (GMT +3)
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1606 R. 1.1792
USDJPY S. 110.23 R. 113.05
GBPUSD S. 1.3143 R. 1.3317
USDCHF S. 0.9882 R. 1.0004
AUDUSD S. 0.7298 R. 0.7496
NZDUSD S. 0.6698 R. 0.6868
USDCAD S. 1.3012 R. 1.3314
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