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Wednesday, May 16th
The EUR/USD pair remains broadly unchanged since today’s opening, having stuck in the region its multi-month lows, marked on the level of 1.1816 earlier this session. Yesterday the pair came under renewed bearish pressure in wake of increased demand for the greenback, despite weak US retail sales numbers. Recent bearish dynamics of the pair could be explained by intentions of the Fed to implement tightening measures to its monetary policy, which increases the divergence between the Fed and ECB, as the European regulator continues to remain in wait-and-see mode. Today during the European session investors will focus their attention on the first-tier EU CPI data and speech of the ECB president M. Draghi, while the NA session will bring us data from the US housing market, which will also help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.
The GBP/USD pair extends its yesterday’s corrective upside move from its 5-month lows, marked on the level of 1.3451. Yesterday’s retreat is mostly attributed to another spike of demand for the US dollar across the market. Moreover, the pound continues to suffer from recent dovish outcome of the BoE meeting, where the regulator left its interest rate unchanged on the back of decline in the UK economy. And finally another set of weak data from the UK labor market, published on Tuesday, also negatively affected positions of the pound, limiting its chances of recovery. Today the UK data calendar won’t bring investors anything interesting, while the US will publish data from the housing market, which will offer investors fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.
The USD/JPY pair corrects lower this Wednesday, after testing its 3.5-month highs, marked on the level of 110.45. Moreover, markets mostly ignored negative Japan’s GDP figures, not offering any support to the pair during the Asian session. The main driver for the pair remains the US dollar price dynamics, which continues to push the pair in the north direction. However, it seems that today US bulls took a short breather after another upside rally of the greenback against its major rivals, witnessed a day before. In addition to that, slightly increased demand for safety also offers some support to the yen, thus weighing the pair. As for the data, today the US economic calendar will offer investors only the building permits report, again leaving the pair at the mercy of US dollar price actions.
The NZD/USD pair again is trying to recover from its 5-month lows, located on the level of 0.6851. The pair continues to stay negative so far this week, which could be mainly explained by ongoing demand for the US dollar. However, it seems that the greenback eased pressure on the market this Wednesday, allowing the pair recover some ground. Moreover, ongoing rally in oil prices, which recently refreshed its 3.5-year highs, offer some support to the commodity-linked Kiwi, limiting retreat of the pair. Looking ahead, today the US economic calendar will bring us data from the housing market and oil stockpiles, while broad market trend, determined by the US dollar price dynamics, will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
ECB President M. Draghi’s Speech – 15.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1747 R. 1.1985
USDJPY S. 109.33 R. 110.97
GBPUSD S. 1.3361 R. 1.3687
USDCHF S. 0.9954 R. 1.0072
AUDUSD S. 0.7395 R. 0.7577
NZDUSD S. 0.6810 R. 0.6952
USDCAD S. 1.2718 R. 1.3010
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