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Friday, April 20th
The EUR/USD pair was consolidating its positions during the Asian session, trading within 1.2334-53 range, amid lack of any drivers. Yesterday the pair received notable bearish impetus on the back of attempts of US bulls to retake control over the pair. However, further retreat lacked a momentum and the pair entered its narrow corridor. Moreover, the subdued dynamics of the pair could be additionally explained by increasing cautiousness, as we are heading towards the ECB meeting, which will take place next week already. But for today, the economic calendar will remain broadly silent, so widespread market trend will remain the key navigator for the pair at the last trading session of this week.
The GBP/USD pair accelerates its downside run, having refreshed its 2-week lows at 1.4046 spot this morning. The pound has been experiencing hard times so far this week, trading in the negative direction for the fourth consecutive session. The main reason of pair’s retreat could be called series of disappointing data from the UK economy, which significantly lowered prospects of a rate hike on the next BoE meeting. Adding to this, dovish comments of the BoE Governor M. Carney also call into question the rate hike next month. Yesterday, Mr. Carney delivered his speech, where he was speaking about higher rates, expected later this year, while noting that uncertainty around Brexit could slow down the process of policy tightening. Looking ahead, today the economic calendar won’t offer us anything important, leaving the pair at the mercy of broad market trend at the end of this week.
The USD/JPY pair remains bullish for the third session in a row, having refreshed its weekly highs at 107.73 spot. It seems that recent recovery of the US dollar outgrew into to a full bullish rally, overshadowing all other factors at the end of this week. Adding to this, growth pace of the Japanese inflation didn’t show any improvement, as was indicated by the latest data, which also adds some weakness to the yen, as it means that the monetary policy of the BoJ will remain highly accommodative. On the data front, today the US calendar will offer investors only second tier data, which won’t have any impact on the pair, so the US dollar price dynamics will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair this Friday.
The NZD/USD pair remains the main outsider of this session, having refreshed its 2-week lows at 0.7234 spot on the back of several bullish factors. First, today the demand for the US dollar dominates the market, which is the main determinant for the pair, pushing it to a negative territory. Moreover, another swing in risk sentiment also negatively affects positions of the higher-yielding Kiwi, thus accelerating its decline against its major competitors. Today in absence of any important data releases the US dollar price actions will remain the key determinant for the pair during this trading session.
Major events of the day:
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2287 R. 1.2429
USDJPY S. 106.98 R. 107.70
GBPUSD S. 1.3952 R. 1.4310
USDCHF S. 0.9642 R. 0.9758
AUDUSD S. 0.7659 R. 0.7847
NZDUSD S. 0.7208 R. 0.7374
USDCAD S. 1.2552 R. 1.2734
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