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Wednesday, April 4th
The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its overnight recovery and dip to the region of 2-week lows, located near the level of 1.2250. The latest downside trend of the pair is mainly attributed to attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent drawdown, caused by trade tensions between the US and China. However, today we will have a rather busy session ahead, so most likely the US dollar price dynamics will take a back seat. In the day ahead, the European economic calendar will offer markets preliminary inflation figures, while the US have prepared the ADP report and the ISM Non-manufacturing data, which will be able to form pair’s further trajectory this Wednesday.
The USD/CAD pair tried to recover part of its losses in early Europe after massive drawdown, witnessed earlier this week. Yesterday the pair received notable bearish impetus following news headlines, saying that US President D.Trump intends to reach a deal on NAFTA during the final round of talks at a Summit on April 9th. Hopes that the US and Canada will be able to avoid disagreements during negotiations on NAFTA sparked the demand for the Loonie. On the other hand, bearish dynamics of oil prices negatively affected commodity-linked Canada’s currency, thus limiting pair’s further retreat. On the data front, traders now look forward to a slew of the US data, featuring ADP employment report and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which will be able to set up pair’s next short-term direction during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair shows positive dynamics in the middle of the week, which was additionally underpinned by positive data from the Australian economy. Earlier this session, the pair received notable bullish impetus after Australia published retail sales data, which came above market’s expectations, thus allowing the pair to refresh its weekly highs at 0.7715 spot. However, the pair failed to keep its positions and retreated below the level of 0.7700 in early Europe, as the ongoing trade tariff spat between the US and China forces investors to pay attention to less risky assets lately. In the day ahead, the US data calendar will offer investors a slew of economic data, including ADP employment change numbers, which are usually considered as pre-NFP data.
The USD/JPY pair was trading in the region of 106.45-65 during the Asian session, struggling to find a direction. The pair staged solid recovery earlier this week, having stepped over the level of 106, that could be explained by attempts of the US dollar to recover after its recent drawdown, triggered by trade conflict, emerged between the US and China. However, the pair met resistance at 106.65 level, as a US-China trade war continue to hammer risk appetite, thus boosting demand for the safe-haven yen. Meanwhile, today traders will remain in anticipation of the US data releases, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session, however, risk-off sentiment will continue to influence the pair, as we heading towards the release of NFP, which are scheduled for this Friday.
Major events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.2203 R. 1.2367
USDJPY S. 105.35 R. 107.27
GBPUSD S. 1.3988 R. 1.4124
USDCHF S. 0.9508 R. 0.9636
AUDUSD S. 0.7625 R. 0.7735
NZDUSD S. 0.7165 R. 0.7315
USDCAD S. 1.2695 R. 1.2979
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