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Thursday, November 16th
The EUR/USD pair remains within its narrow trading range of 1.1780-1.1800, as investors are expecting crucial inflation data from the Eurozone. Seems that the pair is consolidating positions after minor retreat from its monthly highs, marked yesterday in the vicinity of 1.1860, amid renewed risk appetite and expectations of fresh developments regarding the US tax reform. Today, the tax reform plan will be submitted for a vote in the House of Representatives. Leaders of the Republican Party have already expressed their support for the tax bill, which makes possible the implementation of much-awaited tax reforms by the end of this year. Besides the EU numbers and the tax vote, today we have a package of reports from the US economy, featuring Philly Fed manufacturing index and slew of secondary releases, which will help the pair to from its trajectory during the NA session.
The AUD/USD pair remains highly offered so far this week, additionally weighed today by weak Australian job figures. Earlier today, the Aussie failed to extend its correction from its 4-month lows in the pair with its US counterpart, backed by risk-on sentiments on the FX area, and came under renewed selling pressure after Australia published disappointing employment change numbers. Adding to this, today the pair is also suffering from positive moods of the greenback, which are boosted by speculations regarding upcoming US tax reform developments. Today the US economic calendar won’t bring a lot of relevant releases, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, while investors’ interest in higher-yielding assets may appear supportive to AUD.
The GBP/USD pair failed to retake its key resistance level of 1.32, and retreated back to the area of 1.3150 amid better sentiments surrounding the US dollar on Thursday. Increased demand for the US dollar remains key determinant across the market in the second half of this week, as markets expect that the US tax bill will pass the vote in the House of Representatives and much-awaited reforms will be implemented by the end of this year. On the other side, latest comments from one of the EU negotiators Guy Verhofstadt, who expects that Brexit talks wouldn’t fail, keep investors confident that both sides will reach a compromise in the negotiations, which in turn appears positive factor for GBP. Looking ahead, now all eyes remain glued to crucial data releases from the UK economy, while upcoming Philly Fed manufacturing index and BoE Governor M.Carney’s speech will keep investors busy during the NA session.
The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets across the market of this Thursday, having retreated to the area of its multi-week lows, marked earlier this week in the region of 0.6850. The Kiwi prolongs its bearish march for the sixth session in a row, as divergence between monetary policies of the Fed and RBNZ remains key navigator for NZD/USD. Expectations of December Fed rate hike, coupled with uncertainty on the political field of the NZ and downbeat NZ fundamentals, are exerting negative pressure on the pair lately. Moreover, increased demand for the US dollar on the back of hopes that the US tax reform plan will pass the vote in the House of Representatives later today also adds some pressure on the pair today. On the data front, today we have only Philly Fed manufacturing index, which will help the pair to determine its further trajectory, so NZD/USD will continue to keep following broad market trend during this trading session.
The main events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +2)
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +2)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +2)
BoE Governor M.Carney’s Speech – 16.00 (GMT +2)
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1735 R. 1.1887
USDJPY S. 111.92 R. 113.96
GBPUSD S. 1.3086 R. 1.3256
USDCHF S. 0.9816 R. 0.9946
AUDUSD S. 0.7539 R. 0.7657
NZDUSD S. 0.6828 R. 0.6942
USDCAD S. 1.2679 R. 1.2831
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