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Monday, August 28th
The EUR/USD pair continues to keep positive mood, remaining in the region of its 2-1/2 year tops, marked at 1.1960 earlier this session. Seems that bulls have not given up yet after Friday’s 150 pips upside rally, following speeches of both heads of regulators at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The Fed Chair J.Yellen's speech wasn’t very informative, lacking of any details on Fed further monetary policy, that, in turn, disappointed the market and triggered broad sell-off of the US currency. On the other hand, ECB President M.Draghi in his speech showed intention of beginning the QE program tapering, however, not specifying when and how the regulator will implement these measures. Also Mr. Draghi noted that the EU economy continues to show sustainable recovery, while adding that accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for a while. In general, the speech of the ECB President was taken by markets as hawkish, providing additional support to the main currency pair. Today both economic calendars won’t bring any important data reports, so broad market trend will remain as a key determinant for the pair at the start of this week.
The GBP/USD pair opened today with strong bullish gap in the region of its weekly highs, located at 1.2925 level, on the back of broad US dollar weakness, backed by Friday’s disappointment. However, seems that the pair has lost a smile and failed to keep its today’s gains, retreating below the level of 1.2900, on the back of concerns regarding a third round of Brexit negotiations, which will take place later this week. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair will keep its positive mood during the first working day of this week, as market participants keep digesting Friday’s Fed Chair J.Yellen’s speech, which came short of market’s expectations, failing to deliver any hints on further Fed monetary policy path. Today in absence of any major market moving economic releases from both sides, the pair will remain at the mercy of USD price dynamics, which will continue to navigate the pair throughout this session.
The USD/JPY pair extends its Friday’s retreat, getting towards the level of 109.00 and failing to correct higher at the start of this week, as broadly weaker US dollar dominates the market. On Friday, the pair fell sharply on the back of not so hawkish Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium, which failed to provide any surprise to the market regarding central bank's near-term monetary policy outlook. Moreover, ongoing cautiousness among investors, bolstered by headlines about another missile launch by North Korea during the weekend, supports safe-haven assets this Monday, thereby collaborating with pair’s downside traction. Looking ahead, today we will have pretty quiet session, as the US economic calendar won’t bring any relevant data, leaving the pair at the mercy of the US dollar dynamics and broad market risk trend.
The AUD/USD pair shows subdued trading dynamics on Monday, however, remaining within striking distance of weekly highs, posted at 0.7954 spot on Friday on the back of disappointing Fed Chair J.Yellen's speech. The head of the regulator failed to match market’s expectations, as she remained silent on the economic and monetary policy implications. On the other hand, the major remains capped below the level of 0.7950, as risk-off trend, underpinned by ongoing tensions between the US and N.Korea, is weighing on higher yielding assets, such as the Aussie. Today broad market trend and USD price dynamics will remain as key navigators for the pair, as the US data calendar lacks of any fundamental reports in the session ahead.
The main events of the day:
Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1715 R. 1.2043
USDJPY S. 108.69 R. 110.15
GBPUSD S. 1.2757 R. 1.2947
USDCHF S. 0.9481 R. 0.9701
AUDUSD S. 0.7854 R. 0.7992
NZDUSD S. 0.7169 R. 0.7293
USDCAD S. 1.2421 R. 1.2569
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