EUR/USD: Bullish: Diminished odds for further EUR strength.
Despite breaking above the major 1.1000 resistance (high of 1.1023 early yesterday), EUR closed lower and registered a ‘bearish outside bar’. The development came as a surprise and does not bode well for the current bullish view (that started on 26 Apr, spot at 1.0930). A break below 1.0900 would indicate that a short-term top is in place at 1.1023. Until then, another push higher is not ruled out even though the odds for such a move have diminished (1.1020/25 is expected to offer solid resistance from here).
GBP/USD: Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 1.3000.
As indicated yesterday, despite the overall positive undertone, GBP has to close above 1.3000 to indicate that it has moved into a bullish phase again. While the odds are not high, this scenario is not ruled out as long as the strong support at 1.2880 can hold for the next 1 to 2 days.
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AUD/USD: Bearish: To take partial profit at 0.7335/40.
AUD traded in a muted manner yesterday and there is not much to add. As highlighted, the combination of waning momentum and oversold conditions suggest that any further down-move would likely face difficulty in moving below the major 0.7330 support. Those who are short when the bearish phase started last Thursday should look to book some partial profit ahead of 0.7330 (say near 0.7335/40).
NZD/USD: Neutral: In a 0.6840/0.6955 range. [No change in view]
NZD closed on a strong note last Friday and the recent downward pressure has eased. This pair has likely moved into a sideway consolidation phase and is expected to trade sideways between 0.6840 and 0.6955 for now.
USD/JPY: Neutral: Bullish again if daily closing above 113.50.
We just shifted from a bullish to neutral stance yesterday and there is no change to the view. That said, the sharp overnight swing higher came a surprise and this has shifted the immediate pressure to the upside. From here, a daily closing above 113.50 would indicate that USD has re-entered a bullish phase. While the odds for such a move are not high for now, the upward pressure would increase quickly as long as the short-term support at 112.60 can hold for the next few days.