Forex technical analysis: USDCAD retraces to 50% retracement as oil retreats

5 July 2016, 20:32
Sherif Hasan

Back below 200 hour MA

Adam just posted on the weakness in the price of oil . The USDCAD followed that retreat with a move higher today. 

That rally has seen the price of USDCAD retrace to the 50% of the move down from the June 28 - post Brexit - high. That level comes in at 1.2975 the high today stalled at 1.29744.  That high was also near the swing high from Friday's trade.  

There is room to roam in Adam's oil chart should the support he mentioned, give way at $45.83.  That should lead to room to roam on the USDCAD as well.  

Technically, the USDCAD price did run into the aforementioned technical resistance at the 1.2975 level and has since moved below the 200 hour MA as well.  Following that 200 hour MA  back in time (see green line in the chart above), the market has had a "bullish above/bearish below attitude" towards the pair around that MA.  Today we have seen a little of both. We are currently making a move back above the level. 

Nevertheless, the above and below activity says to me, traders in USDCAD are wary of oil near support.  Will oil continue it's move lower below the $45.83 level Adam outlines, or will it bounce off support?  In oil we are seeing a little bounce off the low at the moment (the low is $46.33. The current price is at $46.52 after moving to $46.80ish.

For the USDCAD, get and stay above the 200 hour MA at the 1.2954 and then the 50% at 1.2975 will be technical clues to eye.  If the price can get and stay above those level, then the 100 day MA at 1.3028 will be the next targets for the pair (see blue line overlay on the chart above). 

The USDCAD moved above that key 100 day MA on the Monday and Tuesday after Brexit (June 27 and 28th) but could not maintain momentum on the breaks.  The MA has stepped a bit lower since then, making it an easier hurdle, but we may need some further weakness in oil to get to and through those levels.   

Key level for oil.  Key level for USDCAD.   I get the feeling they will dance the same (or similar) dance.

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