Breaking for Bremain? Sterling shines

23 June 2016, 13:30
Sherif Hasan

There is no rest for pollsters nor markets on the eve of the big vote. Two fresh polls show are showing a last moment lean against Leave and for Remain. This is different from the very tight polls released earlier in the day.

YouGov shows 51% for Remain and 49% for Leave with no undecideds. This is a 4% swing from the previous poll that showed 44:42 for Leave. ComRes shows an even bigger move: 48% for Remain against 42% for Leave, up from a dead heat beforehand.

This tilts the FT’s Brexit Tracker from 44:43 for Leave to 47:45 for Remain. It shows that the undecideds are picking the devil they know. However, it is important to stress that these are small samples and the changes are certainly prone to errors.

Nevertheless, and despite the thin liquidity, markets are certainly moving.

GBP/USD is rising in the thin hours of the Australia / New Zealand session and has reached 1.4842, which 200 pips above the lows of the day and the highest this year. 1.4770 switches from resistance to support. 1.50 is the next level looming above.

If this remains the mood, we may get a “buy the rumor sell the fact” on Friday morning. If the mood remains and Brexit wins, the fall will be even larger.


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