US May Non-Farm Payrolls Likely to Rise on Verizon Labor Strike
The United States Non-Farm Payrolls is expected to rise following the labor strike at Verizon, over the low wages paid to workers and the power and domination imposed upon them. The strike began on April 13 and remains active till date, affecting about 40,000 workers.
According to a survey by Barclays, on an establishment payroll basis, workers must have received pay for at least part of the pay period during the survey week that includes the 12th of the month. However, the strike is deemed not to affect household employment as workers on strike are counted as employed but not contributing in the household survey.
For the May US employment report, scheduled for release on June 3, Friday, it is expected that nonfarm payrolls will rise by 150,000, private payrolls to expand by 145,000, and government payrolls to grow by 5,000, Barclays reported.
The lack of resolution to the work stoppage means information sector payrolls are likely to decline by about 40,000 in the upcoming May establishment report, the survey said.
"Our forecast implies headline payroll growth net of the Verizon strike in the range of 175-200k, which would represent a modest rebound after last month’s disappointing report," Barclays said in their research report.
However, labor markets are expected to continue improving through the year, making major contributions to wage rise. Also, average wage earnings are expected to rise as well during the period.
"We look for average weekly hours to remain steady at 34.5 and average hourly earnings to rise by 0.1 pct m/m (2.3 pct y/y)" the investment bank commented in a research note.