68% Probability that EURUSD will close low in the next 3 days

There is 68% Probability that EURUSD will close low today or tomorrow ..Why?

1. EURUSD have been rising for the last 5 consecutive trading days.
2. RSI 2 periods is above 95% which is extreme over bought.
3. EURUSD trading begin with an opening gap this week.
4. Friday candle is a long tall candle more than 150% from ATR10.
   

Take a look to the chart: