US Durable Goods Orders Preview: What to Expect of EUR/USD?
The US Dollar extended its weakness against most major currencies during European session, lifting the EUR/USD
pair to 1.1300 round figure mark. The pair, however, has trimmed some
of its gains ahead of the monthly release of US durable goods order
Durable goods orders eyed for further cues
The Commerce Department is scheduled to release durable goods orders data for the month of March. Following a sharp decline in February, consensus estimates are pointing to a healthy 1.9% rise. Meanwhile, orders for core durable goods (excluding transportation items) is expected register a gradual rise of 0.6%, still better than the sharp decline of 1.3% in February.
Strong March durable goods orders data coupled with better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI for March, might now fuel speculation of hawkish tone by the Federal Reserve. This would eventually call for expectations of another rate-hike, as early as June, which could possibly trigger a sharp spike in the US Dollar.
On the contrary, weak headline number would extend little help to the already struggling USD bulls ahead of the key FOMC meeting outcome, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.
EUR/USD technical levels to watch
Below 1.1250, immediate downside support is seen near Monday's low level of 1.1220-15 region. A break under would expose 50-day SMA support near 1.1190-85 zone, below which the pair might turn vulnerable to further downside in the near-term.
On the flip side, a clear break-through 1.1300-1.1315 immediate resistance is likely to result into a quick up-move towards 1.1355-60 horizontal resistance before the pair heads back towards testing the very important resistance near 1.1400 mark.