Market Analysis 11 - 15 April 2016

Market Analysis 11 - 15 April 2016

10 April 2016, 17:47
Diego Bonifacio

The strength of the yen weakened slightly, because the Japanese regulatory authorities of some verbal intervention and escape fear speculators. Foreign Minister Aso financial appeal once again to take the necessary steps in the foreign exchange movements, and noted that the action in the foreign exchange suddenly is "undesirable."

Kan, head of the Cabinet has entered the fray, noting that the yen is not based on fundamentals. Financial data from the Japanese Ministry of Health show that the increase in February current account surplus. This means that, as is the weekly data from the portfolio clearly, Japanese investment in foreign assets by the increasing demand.

However, despite the outflow (perhaps because of the risk hedge position), the demand for the yen foreign investors really appreciate yen. We expect that as we approach the altitude 105.00 Japanese officials verbal intervention will increase. Significant effects of the strong yen import prices does not in any way hinder Japan voted against the fight deflation.

Although the provisions of central bank intervention has overturned more than a few analysts, we believe that the Bank of Japan's pain threshold is about 100-104. First, this week, Prime Minister Abe invited, followed by the Bank of Japan's credibility has been questioned, "Do not from any foreign exchange market intervention." In particular, the weakening of the yen, we believe that the Bank of Japan is no effective tools for extended periods of time to weaken the yen. Direct intervention in the foreign exchange valid only undermine the credibility of the central bank.


EUR / USD saw bearish reversal down approaching resistance at 1.1453 bits per hour (up to April 7, 2016). Monitoring the recent lows at 1.3338 (April 7, 2016 low), with the remaining resistance is lower than 1.1405 (maximum 4 July 2016 end) prices. A more powerful support is ubica to 1.1058 (16 March 2016 lows). It provides additional settings in parentheses. In the long run, as long as the bearish technical structure is conducive to the tendency to hold on 1.1746 resistance. Key resistance at 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low). Current technology means increasing appreciation.


GBP / USD short-term momentum is in a growth phase. Hourly support 1.4171 (January 4, 2016 low) and 1.4033 (March 3, 2016 low) is broken. Hourly resistance is considered to 1.4322 (maximum 4 April 2016). It is expected to further consolidate below 1.4000. In the long-term negative technical model, and promote a further decline in the key 1.3503 support (23/01/2009 minute), until the price will remain below the resistance at 1.5340 / 64 (minimum 04 / two thousand and fifteen points XI, also saw the moving average 200 days). However, the general revival of oversold conditions and the recent purchase of paving the way to rebound.


USD / JPY is likely to rebound in the short-term key support of a breakthrough stage. This short-term downward spiral tick, which indicates that the risk of further decline. The regional support in 109.88 (maximum 7 April 2016) ubica and powerful anti ubica 113.80 (maximum 29 March 2016). There is expected to further weaken. We lean to set a long-term bearish. Our goal is to 105.23 (lowest October 15, 2014) targets. Gradually increasing amounts of resistance at 135.15 (maximum January 2, 2002) appears less than ideal. It noted in 105.23 (lowest October 15, 2014), another key support.


USD / CHF has been successfully received support in the crucial trend line 0.9522 (April 16, 2013 low). The resulting sales breakthrough may lead to short-term rebound. Support zone may be located at 0.9522 (intraday min), while resistance ubica hour to 0.9622 (maximum 4 June 2016). Stronger resistance can be can be seen at 0.9788 (up to March 25, 2016). It is expected to further consolidate the monster. Key support can be found in the long-term 0.8986 (30/01/2015 low), to the highest since its inception in mid-2015. Encourage long-term bullish technical structure.

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