Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016

Generalized Forex Forecast for 11-15 April 2016

9 April 2016, 16:41
Sergey Ershov

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

■ giving forecast for EUR/USD, we assumed that the front line between the "bulls" and "bears" would be held at the level of 1.1400. However, the fact that their forces are so equal was a surprise. As a result, neither of them have been able to achieve any visible benefits, and the week ended as started, at the same point - 1.1400;

■ with regard to GBP/USD, the forecast that the pair will tend to February lows, starts to fulfil - on Wednesday the pair reached the level of 1.4000 in a sharp throw. However, as expected, it returned fast into the side channel, where it has been moving for the last three weeks;

■ USD/JPY - the forecast for this pair can be considered a failure: the pair reached the said support of 110.70 very quickly and then, heated by economic news from Japan, easily broke through it and went down further, having finished five days in the zone of 108.00;

■ as for the USD/CHF, this pair has once again showed its dependence on the behaviour of EUR/USD - following its "older sister", it demonstrated a sluggish sideways, making minor fluctuations around the Pivot Point 0.9570.


Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

■ if you look at the graph of EUR/USD on W1, a rising channel is clearly visible, which began in early last December. Now the pair is practically at its upper limit and, according to the readings of graphical analysis both on H4 and on D1, having repulsed from it, the pair should go down to the central line of 1.1135, and then return to the 1.1500 zone.  As for experts, they still "hold" to the Pivot Point 1.1400, drawing a side channel in quite a narrow range - 1.1320 ÷ 1.1500;

■ the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged - movement to the February lows. 65% of the experts, as well as 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this. The remaining experts are of the opinion that the pair will continue oscillations in the March range 1.4050 ÷ 1.4450;

■ USD/JPY. It is clear that 100% of the indicators for this pair look to the south. Two-thirds of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believing that the pair should reach the bottom in the area of ​​105.50, agree with that. At the same time the graphical analysis warns that short-term spurt up to the 111.00 resistance is possible before it does. The longer-term forecast remains in force, saying that in late April - early May, the pair should return to the area of ​​114.70 ÷ 117.00;

■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, about 80% of the experts, together with graphical analysis on the H4, continue to wait for a rebound up.  The next goal is to return to the 0.9800 zone. Support is at the level of 0.9570.


Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov

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