US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: What to Expect of EUR/USD?

US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: What to Expect of EUR/USD?

1 April 2016, 13:38
Roberto Jacobs

US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: What to Expect of EUR/USD?

US March non-farm payrolls figure is due for release today. Markets expect the data to show the economy added 205K jobs compared to 242K additions seen in February.

The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.9% and the average hourly earnings are seen rebounding 0.2% m/m from the 0.1% drop seen in February.

Euro flirting with 23.6% Fibo

The pair is attempting a break above 1.1418 (23.6% of March 2015 low-Aug 2015 high) after having recovered from the low of 1.1367 levels. First attempt at 23.6% Fibo hurdle seen yesterday had run out of steam around 1.1412 levels.

Focus on wage growth, but weak NFP could weigh over USD

Non-farm payrolls figure is a non-event for the USD bulls since labor market strength is well know despite which the Fed has tilted on the dovish side. Moreover, USD bulls would require a sharp rebound in average hourly earnings in order to push the USD higher.

another reason to delay its rate hike. So a weak payrolls figure coupled with anemic wage growth could result in the EUR/USD pair rising to 1.1460-1.15 levels. Meanwhile, a sharp rebound in wage growth could trigger a wave of profit taking, thus exposing support at 1.1376-1.1342 levels.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The spot currently trades around 1.1418 (23.6% of March 2015 low-Aug 2015 high ) levels. Acceptance above the same would reinforce bullish calls and thus open doors for rise to 1.1460 (Sep 18 high) followed by a test of 1.15 handle.

On the other hand, a break below 1.13 would expose support at 1.1376 (Feb high), under which the spot may test 1.1342 (Mar 17 high).

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)

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