US: Trading Payrolls – Deutsche Bank
Alan Ruskin, Macro Strategist at Deutsche Bank, suggests that after the Yellen speech largely ruled out an April hike, there is an asymmetric bias toward risk positive, USD negative data.
Key Quotes
• “However, the market is struggling for asset classes where there is ‘decent value’ to express a risk positive view. Commodities and related high yield are still global growth dependent, and equities are seen as rich and less responsive to G3 Central Bank policy.
• In contrast, EM and EM FX in particular are seen having pockets of value. As an example, the ZAR and MXN as more liquid EM currencies, have close to 3% upside versus the USD before coming up against even more serious USD support.
• G10 higher yielders (Aussie and Kiwi) are much less attractive and are setting themselves up for better medium-term AUD/USD and NZD/USD sell levels.
• On the EUR 1.15 is widely seen as the top of the range that is not expected to be extended. Whether EUR officials talk the EUR down near there will say something about how overt a (Shanghai/Plaza-lite) agreement there is, that USD strength should be discouraged.
• That the market only has one 25bp rate hike priced in for June 2017 looks far too low even with a consensus NFP number, and is one indication that Fed expectations have plenty of scope to help the USD find a base (DXY ~ 93) on a multi-week/month basis.”
(Market News Provided by FXstreet)
