We expect the BEA’s third estimate of Q4 GDP to leave top-line growth unchanged at 1.0%, though we anticipate compositional shifts in its prior estimate of real output. We look for real consumption growth to be marked up by one-tenth, to 2.1%, on account of the Quarterly Services Survey and revisions to retail sales data. We expect downward revisions to all components of fixed business investment and inventories. Residential investment, government consumption and investment, and net exports are likely to be revised up modestly.
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