Generalized Forex Forecast for 14 - 18 March 2016

Generalized Forex Forecast for 14 - 18 March 2016

12 March 2016, 18:34
Sergey Ershov
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First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, everything went more or less according to the approved plan up to the middle of Thursday: the pair first went down, and then rebounded, thus denoting two boundaries of the corridor, and turned into a sideways trend. With specific regard to March 10, at first, following the ECB decision on interest rates, the pair fell to the level of 1.0821, then Mr. Draghi spun the market opinion, and it soared 500 points up. - to a height of 1.1217. At this, the pair is still kept within the channel designated for it by indicators and graphical analysis on D1, - 1.0710 ÷ 1.1340;

■ with regard to GBP/USD, the most accurate prediction was given by graphical analysis. Recall that, according to its readings,, at the beginning of the week the pair was supposed to oscillate in a range from 1.4150 to 1.4250, and then, with the rise, reach a height of 1.4375. That is what happened, with small tolerances: until Thursday the pair moved in the channel 1.4132 ÷ 1.4275, and then, having gone up, completed the five-day period in the 1.4380 area;

■ USD/JPY. Here graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on all time frames indicated a continued sideways trend within the 113.00 ÷ 114.50. In reality, the pair did continue moving in the horizontal channel, virtually repeating the scenario of the previous week. As a result, the vibration amplitude was slightly wider than predicted - 112.22 ÷ 114.44, but the pair has once again finished the week at exactly the same place where it began - at the level of 113.80;

■ speaking about the USD/CHF future, for two weeks in a row experts insisted that the pair still had to reach the 0.9800 support. And it finally did that on Thursday, mirror copying the behaviour of its "elder sister" - EUR / USD.

 

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Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

■ giving a forecast for EUR/USD, 75% of experts, graphical analysis, and 100% indicators on H4 and D1 are based on the fact that 'magic' of the speech of the ECB chairman M.Dragi will operate for at least another week, causing the pair to rise even higher - into the zone of 1.1200 ÷ 1.1240. Some of the most radical analysts suggest that it may even reach early February highs near 1.1350. As for predictions for the month, here almost the same 75% of the experts are already looking down - into the zone 1.0800 ÷ 1.1000. In the meantime, as the strongest support level of 1.1080 can be considered;

■ similar unanimity of experts can be noticed speaking of the future of GBP/USD - 75% of them, with virtually full support of the indicators, believe that the pair should reach 1.4500 resistance zone. At this, graphical analysis emphasizes that the pair will briefly delay at this altitude and, breaking the support of1.4370, will first fall for a while into the corridor 1.4250 ÷ 1.4370, and then go even lower - to the support of 1.4120. 65% of the analysts agree with such a scenario;

■ but with regard to the future of USD/JPY, there is no consensus either among experts, or indicators: about half of them stand for growth, and the other half - for the fall, resulting in a side channel in the range of 111.00 to 114.50 with Pivot Point at the level of 113.25. If we talk about a longer term, 60% of the analysts believe that the pair will go to the north - to a height of 117.00, 30% show a decline to 110.00, while the remaining 10% still do not have a definite opinion;   

■ and the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. The forecast for this pair is almost a mirror image of all that has been said for the EUR/USD: 65% of experts and 95% of indicators suggest fall of the pair to support near 0.9700 ÷ 0.9750, after which the pair must return to fulfil its primary mission - break through the defence line of 1.0000 and return to the zone 1.0100 ÷ 1.0200.  

 

Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov

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