First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- with regard to EUR/USD, true turned out to be the scenario that was supported by majority of experts and minority of indicators - having spent some time in a sideways channel and then hitting the support zone of 1.0900, the pair went down. However, this movement was more sluggish than expected, and before reaching the said support at 1.0700, the pair stopped its movement 150 points higher;
- regarding the behavior of GBP/USD, experts suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel in the range 1.4900 ÷ 1.5250, what actually happened: having repulsed on Monday from the upper boundary of the channel, the pair decisively went down and came to a standstill on Friday night at its lower boundary - at the level of 1.4893;
- as for the future of USD/JPY, analysts proved right again - in their opinion, the level of 120.00 was to be a very strong support, repulsing from which the pair had to rush to the resistance of 122.20, and then to the height of 123.20, which was reached on Friday, thanks to the decision of the Bank of Japan's interest rate;
- but regarding the future of USD/CHF, doubts were expressed again, some experts and indicators voted for its growth, and others - for the fall. That is what the pair did - first grew up a little, then dropped, then grew again and as a result, rose by 100 points by the end of the week, which is still difficult to be called a stable turn to the north.
The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of the different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- regarding the future of EUR/USD majority of experts, with full neutrality of indicators, continues to insist on a return of the pair to the values of the second half of November. At the same time graphical analysis on H4 clarifies that the pair may first attempt to break the resistance in the zone of 1.0900, but after one or two unsuccessful attempts will go down to the support level at 1.0700. Next support is 100 points below;
- as for the GBP/USD, all the indicators look down categorically. However, analysts who, unlike indicators, are aware of approaching Christmas holidays, predict transition into a sideways trend in the range of 1.4680 ÷ 1.5000 with Pivot Point 1.4890. They are supported by graphical analysis on D1, while indicating at the continuation of "bearish" sentiment;
- about the same pre-holiday picture is painted by experts together with graphical analysis on H4 for the pair USD/JPY as well. According to them, it must also go to the lateral movement within 120.30 ÷ 122.20. At the same time, indicators on H4, and D1 talk about a clear advantage of "bears" and insist that the pair will not be able to break even the first resistance at 121.70;
- but as for the pair USD/CHF the general forecast remains the same - back to 1.0000 zone. Both experts and indicators on the D1, as well as graphical analysis agree with this. Resistance at 1.0100 is indicated as an immediate objective. Next resistance is in the zone of 1.0150, support remains the same - 0.9800.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
