Weekly economic outlook December 7-11: macrostatistics & main events

This week is a kind of a buffer zone between two five-day intervals full of crucial market events. Prices are still influenced by previous week's dramatic events and the whole world is waiting for the Fed meting December 15-16, which is to finally dot the i's of the beginning of monetary policy tightening trend.

Today, Monday, December 7 the Governor of Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda had a speech. He sees no need to slash rates further into the negative territory.

German industrial production data for October are out today, its growth is much below the expected figures: 0.2% instead of 0.5%.

Eurogroup meeting is also to take place today.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak today. Investors will try to catch a hint to when to expect pound interest rate growth.

Quite a calm day is expected in the USA. FOMC member James Bullard is to give a speech today, which can hardly have a serious effect on financial markets.

On Tuesday, December 8, a large statistics block is to be released in Japan. It will release October's current account balance, revised third-quarter GDP performance quarter (a 0.1% growth is expected) GDP deflator, and third-quarter consumer spending. All these figures draw attention to the yen and the Tokyo Stock Exchange indices as characterizing the efficiency of "abenomics".

Investors and traders will wait for news from China: data on exports and imports, and the November trade balance. The main focus is the commodity markets, because they form the bulk of imports into China and they are more likely to suffer due to lower commodity procurement.

The market focus moves to Europe next. The meeting of eurozone finance ministers will continue. Great Britain manufacturing production is expected to be down bu 0.1%.

Third-quarter GDP of Eurozone is also to be published on Tuesday.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz will give a speech. Investors focus on USDCAD.

Redbook publication and JOLTS Job Openings are schedules in the USA.

Traditionally, on Tuesday, API (American Petroleum Institute) to publish their weekly estimates of US crude oil reserves.

Wednesday, December 9, machinery order data to be released in Japan.

China CPI for November is to show inflation rates and the overall economy health.

USDCHF can be affected by November Unemployment Rate released in Switzerland.

Important releases are scheduled in Germany — exports, imports and trade balance. The expected fall in exports is 0.5%, of imports - 1%. If the decrease turns out to be lower, DAX may have losses.

The USA Mortgage market statistics will be published on Wednesday. The American figures are of a special interest of oil market participants. 10:30 official statistics on weekly crude oil inventories will be released. If they increase again, the futures prices may further be down.

15:00 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release Monetary Policy Statement and its Interest Rate Decision. Investors focus on NZDUSD.

Thursday, December 10 is expected to be rather quiet in the Asia-Pacific region. Some internal statistics releases will be published, the most important of them will be employment and unemployment rates in Australia.

Then the market's attention moves to Europe, where Switzerland central bank is to air the interest rate decision. This is another point of concern, since the franc is traditionally a safe heaven currency. Traders and investors are wondering whether the Swiss regulator would down their deposit rates further in the negative area.

November CPI and industrial output are to be released in France, as well as October trade balance in Great Britain.

Bank of England will publish the MPC meeting minutes, December QE Total and interest rate decision. Two major European bank not in the euro area will thus create a serious background in the financial markets. Therefore most of CHF and GBP pairs will attract the attention of investors. BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at 13:00; his speech is expected to further affect the pound.

The same time we expect the speech of the president of another European backbone regulator — Jens Weidmann of Bundesbank. Pay attention to the euro, because Germany is one of the few countries that most actively stood up against QE extension and ECB's further softening monetary policy.

US export and import price indexes and jobless claims will be published on Thursday.

Friday, December 11,, November PMI in the manufacturing sector will be released in New Zealand.

German to publish November CPI which is considered a measure of inflation.

Industrial production statistics will be published in Italy which is the third largest euro zone economy.

The Bank of Russia will announce interest rate decision. It is expected to be decreased by 0.5% to 10,50%.

More important trade statistics to be published in USA: Core retail sales, producer price index, and November retail sales. Next come Michigan consumer expectation and sentiment figures for December.

The oil market will wait for the next release of Baker Hughes US rig count.

Finally, on Saturday, December 12, Beijing will publish the November fixed asset investment and industrial production in China. These are very important figures, but they will not affect the weekly news background. Investors in will have two days before the next Monday session to assess them.