For starters, a few words about last week’s forecast:
- as for the future of the EUR/USD, most experts and graphical analysis on H1 tended to believe that the pair would take a breather and move in a sideways channel of 1.0650-1.0850. This is practically what happened - the pair didn’t fall below 1.0675 and didn’t rise over 1.0830;
- for GBP/USD, most experts talked about a bullish trend and movement of the pair in the boundaries 1.4950÷1.5220. This forecast turned out to be practically precise - the pair didn’t gj below 1.5025 and rose during the week to the upper boundary of the set corridor finishing the week at the level of 1.5234;
- if we talk of USD/JPY, graphical analysis on H1 supported by half the experts said that the pair might first rise to 123.50-124.00 (it rose to 123.60) and then go down abruptly. If we ignore the word “abruptly”, this is what happened - the pair was falling all the week and slowed down at the support in the zone of 122.50;
- for USD/CHF, the analysts were unanimous that the pair had already reached its target for the near future and now would just be oscillating around the 1.0000 landmark. This is exactly what happened - the pair was moving in the sideways corridor for all the 5 days, holding in the boundaries 0.9990÷1.0095.
Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- as for the behaviour of EUR/USD for the next 5 days, it is almost impossible to give any intelligible forecast. See for yourself: 46% of the experts believe that the pair will grow, 15% are for the sideways trend and 39% are for the fall. Indicators differ as well: at H4 74% of them vote for the growth of the pair, 22% for the fall and 4% remain neutral. Indicators on D1 are of absolutely reverse opinion - here only 9% look to the north, the same amount look to the east, but as much as 82% look to the south. If we add to this that publication of important economic data is expected throughout the week either for the Euro area, Japan and the United States, or speeches of VIP-persons, such as the head of the ECB M.Draghi, the situation becomes even more vague. Therefore, we can only say that the pair has room to fall (to supports 1.0675 and 1.04550), and has room to grow (resistance levels are 1.0835, 1.0900, 1.1100);
- as for the future of GBP/USD, the vast majority of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, predict a sideways trend for the pair sideways with some advantage of the "bears." So, at first the pair may grow up a little to 1.5280, and then descend to the level of 1.5175 first, and then even lower - to 1.5110. If we talk about a long-term forecast, experts believe that in the next few weeks the pair will strive down to a strong support level at 1.4800 area;
- but if we talk about USD/JPY, like last week, of most interest are the readings of graphical analysis. According to its forecast on H4, the pair will first try to break through resistance at 123.00, and, after failing to do so, will roll down, reaching the bottom at the depth of 120.50, and then it will return to the current level of 122.50. The graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this prediction, however, it adjusts the main resistance to the level of 123.75, and the support to 121.00. The experts have called levels of 125.00 and 127.00 "global" purposes for this pair until the end of this year;
- as for the USD/CHF, there is nothing new here - analysts expect the pair to continue oscillation in the range 0.9900 ÷ 1.0100. However, 20% of them, with the support of indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, does not exclude that the pair will soon try to break through into the zone of 1.0120 ÷ 1.0130, from where it will start to attack the height 1.0210.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov