First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD can be considered to have been fulfilled by 99%. Last week’s main events were as follows: the pair bounced off the upper border of the week’s upward channel, fell to its bottom boundary, and, bouncing back up, reached September’s maximum. This is what actually happened, although the pair did not quite reach the very bottom of the channel and slightly overshot the maximum, which is why the forecast lost 1% for its accuracy;
- similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD was predicted to first reach a minimum in the area of 1.5250, and then abruptly shoot up at least to the resistance of 1.5450, which is what happened. Although in this case certain adjustments were made by inertia: during its fall, the pair managed to reach the level of 1.5200, but it then quickly changed its mind and returned to the specified support level of 1.5250. The maximum also turned out to be slightly higher, at the rounded level of 1.5500, while the 1.5450 mark became the point to which the pair returned by the end of the week;
- As for the USD/JPY pair, it seemed impossible to give any forecast last week: 33% of experts voted for the growth of the pair, 33% - for a sideways trend, and 33% - for the movement of the pair downwards. The latter turned out to be right, although the fall was quite short-term and the pair returned to the main support of the last two months soon afterwards;
- USD/CHF - the timid attempts of the "bulls" to push the pair upwards were unsuccessful, and on Thursday, it reached the minimum in the area of 0.9500, as had been specified by the experts, and stayed there until the end of the week.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding the future of EUR/USD, 73% of experts along with graphic analysis and indicators on H1 support a further drop of the pair at first to the support of 1.1300, and then further to the support of 1.1120. The Pivot Point in this case will be at the level of 1.1200. The remaining 27% of experts and 85% of indicators on D1 think that the pair will fail to break through the support of 1.1300 and will go up to the maximum of the previous week. This scenario is also supported by graphical analysis on H4;
- as for the prospects for GBP/USD, most experts, graphic analysis and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair will move in the corridor of 1.5420 ÷ 1.5500 for some time. Yet after that the forecasts diverge: 23% of analysts, with the full support of indicators, insist on the growth of the pair to the zone of 1.5570 ÷ 1.5600, with which graphical analysis strongly disagrees - according to its readings, the pair should go down to the support of 1.5350;
- For USD/JPY, 64% of experts and practically the whole technical analysis toolbox believe that the breakthrough of the lower side of the symmetrical triangle, which was being drawn by the pair since end of August, was short-lived. According to them, everything will return to square one: the pair will reach at least 120.80 and the Pivot Point, as before, will be at the level of 120.00. However, there is opposition to this scenario: 36% of analysts and 76% indicators on D1 are confident that from now on 119.50 will become a powerful resistance level, pushing off which the pair will rush down to the support of 118.00;
- for USD/CHF there are also two possible scenarios. The first one is that the pair will bounce off the upper border of the two-week down-trend channel, reach its lower border in the zone of 0.9400÷0.9420, and then shoot up abruptly, breaking through the channel and reaching resistance at 0.9580 ÷ 0.9600. Indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 45% of the experts, support this forecast. According to the second scenario, the pair will immediately, starting on Monday, go upwards, breaking through the upper boundary of the channel. 55% of analysts vote for this, along with indicators and graphical analysis on H1. At the same time, one third of the experts believe that the pair will not stop at the level of 0.9600, and will go 100 points higher.
Roman
Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
