First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- For EUR/USD the most successful forecast this time was given by graphical analysis, according to which the pair had to first go down to 1.1120 before returning to the resistance at 1.1210, which it did. The pair then moved sideways, turning the level of 1.1210 into a Pivot Point, as well as its finishing point for this week;
- In determining the location of the GBP/USD, the 80% of the analysts who insisted on the pair being sunk turned out to be right. A rebound did not occur, despite of a really strong effort by the "bulls" - in this case the pair followed the predictions of the graphical analysis, which insisted on a sideways trend during the whole of the last week;
- For the USD/JPY pair the 12% of the analysts who, along with the indicators on D1, claimed that the pair would continue a sideways trend, ended up giving the correct forecast. And, if you look at the graph on D1, it is clear that, having descended from the "double peak" to the values of last spring and having reduced its volatility, the last 6 weeks the pair has managed to form an almost perfect "pennant" (or "symmetrical triangle") shape over the last six weeks;
- Regarding the forecasts for USD/CHF, one of them claimed that it should have spent the past week in the sideways movement, which is what happened. At the same time, as predicted, the level of support was at 0.9670, which has been the main support for the pair for the last four weeks. The other level that was called out, 0.9740, acted as the Pivot Point.
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The forecast for the coming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of the different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- For EUR/USD both experts and indicators suggest a continuation of the sideways trend. The levels of 1.1100 and 1.1000 are identified as the lower boundaries. The resistance levels are likely to be 1.1300 and 1.460;
- As in the case of EUR/USD, most experts insist that the GBP/USD pair will also approach the Sun horizontally, from West to East. The main support level will be at 1.5100, with the main area of resistance being around 1.5300. At the same time the graphical analysis on H4 shows that the pair could fight its way up into the 1.5360 zone, as happened on September 8 and 9. Alternative viewpoints are expressed by the 17% of analysts who do not exclude that 1.5100 is still not the bottom, meaning that the pair might descend even lower towards 1.1470;
- Seeing as USD/JPY has formed an absolutely symmetrical "triangle" on D1, the indicators continue to insist on a sideways trend. But if you go to the W1 time-frame (which we very rarely do), we can see that the "triangle" is not at all that symmetrical and is rather facing upwards. This shape usually corresponds with a launch upwards, with which 70% of experts agree, believing that the pair should reach at least 122.00 in the long run. The main support is still considered at 118.50.
- With regards to the future of the pair USD/CHF, if you look at the lows of 24.08, 18.09 and 02.10, an upward support line can easily be drawn through them. This is corroborated by 67% of analysts and indicators on W, who believe that in the medium-term the "bulls” will maintain their advantage and the pair will move up to the 0.9900 mark. At the same time indicators on D1 suggest that the pair will stay in a horizontal trend with a Pivot Point at 0.9740 for yet another week.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
