First, a few words regarding last week’s forecast:
- the EUR/USD pair once again demonstrated its capricious character, and, although it did eventually enter a sideways trend, it only did so after breaking through support in the zone of 1.1280, turning it into resistance;
- following its “older sister”, contrary to all the forecasts, the GBP/USD pair also went sharply downwards, returning to the minimums where it was located in the beginning of June and in the beginning of September. Therefore, if there even was a sideways trend, it was in a very large range - 1.5175÷1.5815;
- however, for the USD/JPY pair the forecast turned out to be practically ideal and was fulfilled by 100% - the pair spent the whole week in a sideways trend in the strictly set boundaries of 119.00÷121.00;
- for the USD/CHF pair 82% of analysts also predicted a sideways trend, but as experience shows, the opinion of the majority is not always correct. Thus, this time too the winners turned out to be the 18% of experts who insisted on the movement of the pair upwards and its transition to the zone of 0.9675÷0.9775. The pair even tried to break through higher, but finished the week near the upper boundary of the specified zone.
The forecast for the coming week:
Generalizing the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on the most different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- for EUR/USD 72% of experts and indicators on D1 predict a fall to the level of 1.1000. Alternatively, 28% of analysts and indicators on H4 insist that the pair will return to resistance at 1.1450. As for graphical analysis, in the short term it predicts a fall to support at 1.1120 followed by a return to resistance at 1.1210;
- regarding the future of GBP/USD, there is hardly anything to say about the indicators – it is crystal clear that all 100% of them unanimously point downwards. The opinions of the experts, however, diverge. Only 20% of them agree with the indicators, believing that the fall will continue to at least the level of 1.5000. The remaining 80% of analysts are certain that the pair has already achieved its minimum and should now rebound towards resistance at 1.5340. Graphical analysis also shows that the pair will remain in a sideways trend for some time, fluctuating between 1.5150 and 1.5340;
- for the USD/JPY pair the majority of experts and indicators on H4 predict movement upwards to 123.00. In this case, the level of 121.30 will become support for the pair. However, there are 12% of analysts who, along with indicators on D1, believe that the pair, leaning on support at 119.00, will continue its four-week sideways trend. The next support in this case will be 118.50;
- As for the future of the USD/CHF pair, the vast majority of both analysts (63%) and indicators believe that the pair has renewed its movement to the symbolic level of 1.0000. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this, and specifies that fluctuations will take place in the range of 0.9670÷1.0100. An alternative view is that the pair will take a break and will reside in a sideways trend, in the limited range of 0.9740÷0.9840.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov