Economic outlook August 10-14: main events & macrostatistics

Economic outlook August 10-14: main events & macrostatistics

10 August 2015, 11:51
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This week’s most awaited reports include U.S. JOLTS, Germany’s GDP for Q2, U.S. PPI, U.S. retail sales, Canada’s manufacturing sales, U.S. consumer sentiment, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment, China’s industrial production, OPEC and IEA reports, and GB claimant.

Now, let us have a closer look at what other data market participants will keep in focus this week:

Monday, August 10th

17:25 (GMT, here and further) – FOMC Member Lockhart and Stanley Fischer Speaks. They are due to speak at the Atlanta Press Club Newsmaker Luncheon.

Tuesday, August 11th

China New Loans: According to the last update, the total loans rose to 1,279 billion RMB; currently, market estimate the amount of new loans fell to 725 billion RMB;

OPEC Monthly Report: This report will show the main developments in crude oil and natural gas’s supply and demand for July 2015; this report will also refer to the developments in the production of OPEC countries during last month;

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: This report will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany for July. In June, the ZEW indicator for Germany fell again to 29.7 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment declines further, this may imply a slowdown in the growth of its economy; the current estimates are for a rise to 31.1.

Wednesday, August 12th

IEA Monthly Oil Update: This report will show an updated (as of July) forecast and analysis for the global crude oil and natural gas market for 2015 and 2016;

05:30 – China’s Industrial Production: According to the recent monthly update, China industrial production grew to an annual rate of 6.8% — higher than market projections; the growth rate is estimated to slightly decline — current estimate is for a growth rate of 6.7%;

09:30 – Great Britain Average Earnings Index 3m/y: This report presents the changes in the price businesses and the government pays for labor force; in the recent report, this index grew by 3.2%; current market estimates are for the index to reach 2.8%;

09:30 – Great Britain Claimant Count Change: As of the previous monthly update, the number of unemployed in GB rose by 7K; the rate of unemployment inched up 5.6% and is expected to remain at this rate this time;

15:00 – U.S JOLTS Job Openings: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report on the U.S number of job openings for June, excluding the farming industry; in the last update regarding May, the number of jobs opening slipped to 5.36 million; current market predictions are for the number to bounce back to 5.42 million;

15:30 – U.S Crude Oil Stockpiles Weekly update: The EIA (Energy Information Administration) will release its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum stockpiles for the week ending on August 7th.

Thursday, August 13th

13:30 – U.S. Retail Sales Report: This monthly report refers to July; in the previous June report, retail sales fell by 0.3% (month-over-month); core retail also slipped by 0.1%; this report also shows the changes in U.S’s gasoline retail sales, which could provide some insight vis-à-vis the progress in demand for gasoline; current projections are for a 0.5% gain in core retail sales in July;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report: This weekly report will pertain to the shifts in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on August 7th; in the recent report, jobless claims slightly increased to 270K; the expectations are for this number to slightly increased again 272K;

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Storage: The EIA weekly report of the U.S. natural gas market will refer to the latest changes in natural gas production, storage, consumption and rates as of August 7th.

Friday, August 14th

10:00 – EU CPI (final): According to the flash estimate, the CPI remained at an annual rate of 0.2% in July;

10:00 –Germany’s Second Quarter GDP 2015: In the first quarter, Germany’s economy grew by 0.3% –lower than in the previous quarter. The current expectations are for the growth rate to reach 0.5% in Q2 2015. A drop in the GDP growth rate could mean the ECB’s QE program could remain here for a long time;

13:30 – Canada Manufacturing Sales: In the last report regarding June 2015, manufacturing sales inched up by 0.1%; current expectations are for a 2.1% gain;

13:30 – U.S. Producer Price Index: This report presents the inflation rate from the producers’ side; it will refer to July 2015. In last month’s report regarding June, this index for finished goods rose by 0.4% compared with the preceding month; the core PPI increased by 0.3%; current estimates are for the PPI to present a gain of 0.1% in the next report;

14:15 – U.S. Industrial Production: This report will present the changes in the U.S industrial production during July; as of June, industrial production rose by 0.3%;

14:55 – UoM Consumer Sentiment (preliminary): University of Michigan will publish its preliminary consumer sentiment monthly update; this survey could offer information vis-à-vis the latest developments in U.S consumers’ sentiment; According to the previous report, the sentiment index declined to 93.3.

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