Let us begin with our previous forecast. Praemonitus praemunitus – forearmed is forewarned, we uttered after the ancient Romans one week ago and warned that all four currency pairs had entered a sideways trend. The forecast turned out to be fully correct – EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF finished the working five days on the same marks as they had started. Only the GBP/USD pair grew slightly, returning to its symbolic zone of 1.5000÷1.5200, in which it had spent all of January. Therefore, in this case we can conclude that there was sideways movement, just of a slightly larger magnitude.
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Now let us move on to the forecast for the coming week. Generalising the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies collected in a table as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can predict that:
- the EUR/USD pair will continue its sideways movement in the range of 1.0500÷1.1030, while if you trust the indicators and the opinions of 40% of the analysts, at the start of the week the pair will strive to reach the upper border of the corridor and then, rebounding from it, move downwards;
- about the same fate is expected for the GBP/USD pair. However, if you consider that the pair finished the previous week at the key level of 1.5185, this level may become either the support level or the resistance level. Most probably, this will become clear in the first one or two days of the coming week: if the pair moves upwards, its target will become the 1.5580 mark, but in the opposite scenario, when falling it will aim for its previous minimum – 1.4600;
- now regarding the currency of the country of the Rising Sun. Naturally, based on last week’s results indicators predict, even on large time-frames, a fall for the USD/JPY pair. Yet analysts, discussing the sideways trend, on the contrary expect the pair to rebound from the zone of 118.55÷118.90 upwards to the zone of 120.80÷ 122.00;
- and finally, the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, which, most probably, will follow in the wake of EUR/USD, and, rebounding from the bottom border of the corridor (0.9500), will move upwards, trying to overcome the maximum of the previous week and gain a foothold in the zone of 0.9720÷0.9860.
Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov
