United States - a vivid example of the economic system focused on domestic consumption. Therefore, the track "feel" of the American consumer is crucial to understanding the prospects for monetary policy in the United States. In this regard, I propose to discuss the dynamics of some indicators.
The first of these indicators - consumer lending. The latest data we have, it's statistics for September, when consumer credit rose by 15.92 billion. Against $ 14.03 billion. Dollars in August. Looking at the chart of this indicator (Figure 1) can be noted the following positive developments: in 2012-2013, it is generally in the range of 10-20 billion. Dollars, this year the band moved up to $ 15-25 billion. Dollars . Unfortunately, at the same time it must be noted that after the April three-year record at 26.11 billion. Dollars indicator shows a gradual decline in August even reached a minimum this year.
Consumer lending in the United States billion. Dollars
The second indicator - retail sales. To assess their growth suggest to use a weekly index Redbook (Figure 2). Here, too, "ointment" was not without its "fly in the ointment." On the one hand, we continue to see the development of a positive trend in 2013-2014. But, on the other hand, as in the case of consumer lending in recent months, we see a correction of multi-year high + 6% y / y, made in July, closer to the trend line in the area + 4% y / y. Slowdown felt in a monthly comparison: for example, at the end of the first two weeks of November decline in the index was 0.9% m / m.
Index dynamics Redbook Retail Sales
The third indicator - consumer confidence. Released on Tuesday, November 25 Conference Board index unexpectedly fell in October reached a multi-year high 94.1 to 88.7, while experts predicted further growth - up 96.5. The two-year positive trend indicator this reduction does not break, but a correction to the trend line there.
Conclusion is that although the long-term trend shows that the US consumer continues to "spread their wings" at the moment of its activity has weakened. With what it can be connected? After all, the situation in the labor market seems to continue to improve, and employment indicators give no alarm ...
I would suggest that the reason (or one of the reasons) to reduce consumer confidence in the United States is the price dynamics. Let us remember what we talked published 20 November inflation report US Department of Labor. From this report, we learned that in October the growth of food prices in the United States amounted to 3.1% y / y, while the growth of spending on housing (which, incidentally, accounts for about a third of the monthly cost of US households) reached 3.0% in the annual comparison. Against this background, growth in wages over the past year amounted to only 0.9%. Apparently, such a slow revenue growth often constrains the desire of American households actively increase spending, which is reflected in the overall level of consumer sentiment.
These conclusions are supported by yesterday's statistics on personal income and spending: both indicators in October fell short of forecasts: revenues grew by 0.2% m / m against the expected 0.4% m / m, while expenses - by 0.2% m / m against the expected 0.3% m / m.
In my opinion, analyzed the data again confirm that the Fed will refrain from raising rates until the summer of next year, consumer spending continued to receive support from the ultrasoft monetary policy. To the author Sergey Glushkov
