On the surface, risk is building, yet underneath, volatility continues to compress. The VIX volatility index at 12.33 is at levels not seen since January. Financial markets are less concerned about geopolitical hype and more focused on fundamentals...

The European Central Bank meeting next Thursday will indicate the end of asset purchases. Council members say that if inflation remains stable, bond buying should be taper. We think that markets are focused on the pure economic data...

Global equities took a hit on the last trading day of the week as investors reallocates their portfolio toward less risky assets. The move was similar in the FX market with the US dollar extending gains against most of its peers, with the exception of the Japanese yen (up 0...

In a surprise move Switzerland consumer price inflation rose higher then forecasts. The move will certain triggers speculation of quicker normalization of extreme policy. Swiss May CPI came in at 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m exp (1.0% y/y vs. 0.9% y/y) while core CPI climbed 0.1% m/m and 0.4% y/y...

The single currency extended gains on Wednesday with EUR/USD finally breaking the 1.1745 resistance to the upside and EUR/CHF climbing towards 1.16...

After a brief rally supported by speculation of tight supplies, crude oil crashed. WTI experienced its largest single-day fall since 2017, as supply increases hit the wires...

As widely expected, the Reserve bank of Australia left its official cash rate target unchanged at 1.50%. The overall tone of the statement remains positive with Governor Lowe staying positive on both Australian and global economic developments...

While the market focused on Italy, the US released some interesting data yesterday. ADP for May reported a marginally weaker result than expected 178k verse 190k exp. The BEA dropped Q1 real GDP to 2.2% q/q against 2.3% exp from previously reported 2.3% q/q...

Financial markets continued to benefit from easing political tensions in Italy after Luigi Di Maio, leader of the 5-Star Movement, said he was ready to go back on his decision to pick economist Paolo Savona for finance minister. Nevertheless, he will stick to Giuseppe Conte for prime minister...

Global risk aversion triggered by political risk mounting in Italy hit crude oil prices hard. Following Friday massive selloff in crude as mixed message from OPEC seem to suggest production cuts might not last...

The FX market continues to be driven by the Italian and Spanish political developments; however, the risk-off sentiment has eased somewhat as investors take a step back to re-evaluate the situation. EUR/USD is up 0.50% this morning as it climbed back towards 1.16 after having reached 1...

With participants on the long weekend, liquidity in the FX markets remains low. Hence volatile news flow continues to drive pricing. In reaction to signs that the US-North Korea summit would move forward Asian currency gained across the board...

The market greeted Sergio Mattarella’s decision to reject euro-sceptic Paolo Savona as Finance Minister. After falling as much as 0.65% last Friday, the single currency bounced back on Monday morning and reached 1.1728, up 0.55% on the session...

The US Federal Open Market Committee 12-13 June meeting will be critical. Not only will there be a decision on policy strategy, but Summary of Economic Projections and a press conference by Fed Chair Powell...

Volatility in EM FX continues to fuel speculation of a wider risk unwind. This time its events in Turkey, which are driving traders into safe-haven trades...

JPY continues to gain on risk aversion trading. UISDJPY has fallen sharply to 109.90 from 110.95 on persistence selling pressure...

The greenback rose across the board on Wednesday morning amid general increase in nervousness to Italy’s future government. The dollar index surged to 93.975, up 0.35% on the day, as the euro dipped to 1.1711 (-0.57%), the pound sterling slid to 1.3385 (-0.35%), while the loonie gave up 0...

We expect oil prices to firm around $70-80 per barrel, but a geopolitical shock could send prices soaring even higher. Their march upward has been driven by global demand (China oil imports at all-time high), disruption in Nigeria and expectations of sanctions on supply from Iran and Venezuela...

The single currency had a rough morning on Tuesday as it kept grinding lower during the Asian session and hit 1.1757 against the greenback...

Unlike what we might think, the energy-related Canadian dollar boost from continued crude oil prices rise is lively...