Current Spot Prices
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EUR/USD: 1.1450
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USD/JPY: 161.10
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GBP/USD: 1.3367
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USD/CHF: 0.8019
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USD/CAD: 1.4160
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AUD/USD: 0.6933
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NZD/USD: 0.5715
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EUR/GBP: 0.8563
Friday (July 3)
EUR/USD
Option expiries:
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1.1300 (€990M)
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1.1325 (€700M)
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1.1350 (€790M)
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1.1370 (€1.6B)
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1.1375 (€1.1B)
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1.1380 (€600M)
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1.1400 (€1.0B)
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1.1430 (€840M)
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1.1450 (€870M)
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1.1500 (€2.0B)
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1.1600 (€2.0B)
Spot: 1.1450
Today's largest expiries are:
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1.1500 (€2.0B)
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1.1600 (€2.0B)
Other notable strikes include:
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1.1370 (€1.6B)
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1.1450 (€870M)
With spot trading exactly at 1.1450, price is likely to remain anchored around current levels in the near term, while 1.1500 represents the first major upside magnet into the New York cut.
USD/JPY
Option expiries:
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160.00 ($1.3B)
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160.50 ($1.2B)
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161.50 ($1.4B)
Spot: 161.10
The largest expiry is:
161.50 ($1.4B)
With spot trading only around 40 pips below this strike, 161.50 is expected to exert the strongest short-term magnetic effect.
GBP/USD
Option expiries:
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1.3200 (£630M)
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1.3300 (£530M)
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1.3400 (£510M)
Spot: 1.3367
The closest strike is:
1.3400
Price action is therefore likely to gravitate toward the 1.3400 area into the New York cut.
AUD/USD
Option expiries:
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0.6700 (AUD 910M)
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0.6900 (AUD 520M)
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0.6925 (AUD 990M)
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0.7100 (AUD 1.3B)
Spot: 0.6933
The largest expiry is:
0.7100 (AUD 1.3B)
However,
0.6925 (AUD 990M)
is extremely close to the current market and is expected to provide the strongest short-term price magnet.
Monday (July 6)
EUR/USD
Option expiries:
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1.1300 (€830M)
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1.1400 (€2.0B)
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1.1450 (€750M)
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1.1500 (€2.2B)
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1.1600 (€1.0B)
Spot: 1.1450
The largest expiry is:
1.1500 (€2.2B)
This is followed by:
1.1400 (€2.0B)
The heavy concentration of expiries suggests that 1.1400–1.1500 is likely to remain the primary trading range into early next week.
USD/JPY
Option expiries:
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160.00 ($2.2B)
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160.50 ($2.5B)
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161.00 ($1.1B)
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161.50 ($770M)
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161.75 ($3.0B)
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162.00 ($1.3B)
Spot: 161.10
The largest expiry is:
161.75 ($3.0B)
Additional large expiries include:
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160.50 ($2.5B)
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160.00 ($2.2B)
A significant concentration of option interest between 160.50 and 161.75 suggests this area is likely to become the dominant trading range early next week.
AUD/USD
Option expiries:
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0.6885 (AUD 720M)
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0.7000 (AUD 750M)
Spot: 0.6933
Spot is positioned almost midway between the two strikes, making the 0.6885–0.7000 range the most likely area for price action.
Overall Market Structure
EUR/USD
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1.1500 (€2.0B) – Friday
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1.1600 (€2.0B) – Friday
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1.1500 (€2.2B) – Monday
USD/JPY
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161.50 ($1.4B) – Friday
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161.75 ($3.0B) – Monday
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160.50 ($2.5B) – Monday
AUD/USD
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0.7100 (AUD 1.3B) – Friday
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0.6925 (AUD 990M) – Friday
Trading Outlook
EUR/USD
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Friday: Price is likely to remain centered between 1.1450 and 1.1500.
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Monday: Expect continued range trading between 1.1400 and 1.1500.
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Mean-reversion strategies remain more attractive than chasing breakouts.
USD/JPY
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Friday: Watch for price attraction toward 161.50.
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Monday: The 160.50–161.75 option cluster is expected to dominate trading.
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Range-trading strategies may offer the highest probability around the New York cut.
AUD/USD
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Expect consolidation around 0.6925.
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If bullish momentum develops, 0.7000 becomes the first upside objective, followed by 0.7100.
Summary
Today's option landscape is dominated by EUR/USD, where large expiries at 1.1500 and 1.1600 (both €2.0 billion) are expected to influence price action. With spot trading at 1.1450, the pair is likely to remain within the 1.1450–1.1500 zone through today's New York option expiry.
Looking ahead to Monday, additional large expiries at 1.1500 (€2.2B) and 1.1400 (€2.0B) reinforce the expectation that this range will continue to act as the market's primary equilibrium zone.
For USD/JPY, today's focus is 161.50 ($1.4B), while Monday features exceptionally large option interest centered at 161.75 ($3.0B), supported by significant expiries at 160.50 and 160.00. As a result, a broad 160.50–161.75 trading range appears more likely than a sustained move back toward 162.00.
