Spot Reference Levels
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EUR/USD: 1.1408
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USD/JPY: 162.68
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GBP/USD: 1.3243
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USD/CHF: 0.8089
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USD/CAD: 1.4210
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AUD/USD: 0.6895
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NZD/USD: 0.5676
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EUR/GBP: 0.8612
EUR/USD
Option Expiries
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1.1300 (EUR 640 million)
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1.1375 (EUR 900 million)
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1.1380 (EUR 710 million)
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1.1400 (EUR 590 million)
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1.1450 (EUR 1.0 billion)
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1.1500 (EUR 840 million)
Current Spot: 1.1408
The largest expiry is:
1.1450 (EUR 1.0 billion)
Additional notable expiries include:
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1.1375 (EUR 900 million)
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1.1500 (EUR 840 million)
With spot already trading above 1.1400, option flows are likely to create a gradual pull toward 1.1450 into the New York cut.
USD/JPY
Option Expiries
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160.00 (USD 1.3 billion)
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161.00 (USD 1.0 billion)
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162.00 (USD 730 million)
Current Spot: 162.68
The largest expiry is:
160.00 (USD 1.3 billion)
All listed strikes are below the current market price.
As a result, near-term option-related influence is limited.
However, if USD/JPY enters a corrective phase, the 161.00–160.00 area is likely to act as an important support zone.
GBP/USD
Option Expiry
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1.3150 (GBP 610 million)
Current Spot: 1.3243
With spot trading well above the strike, the option is expected to have only a limited market impact.
USD/CHF
Option Expiry
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0.8100 (USD 780 million)
Current Spot: 0.8089
With spot trading almost exactly at the strike, 0.8100 is expected to act as the primary pinning level.
AUD/USD
Option Expiries
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0.7000 (AUD 680 million)
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0.7065 (AUD 940 million)
Current Spot: 0.6895
Although both strikes remain above current levels, 0.7065 is likely to become the primary upside target if the Australian dollar continues to recover.
Thursday, July 2
EUR/USD
Option Expiries
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1.1300 (EUR 1.9 billion)
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1.1350 (EUR 810 million)
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1.1400 (EUR 2.5 billion)
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1.1425 (EUR 870 million)
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1.1435 (EUR 530 million)
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1.1450 (EUR 3.8 billion)
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1.1475 (EUR 910 million)
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1.1480 (EUR 990 million)
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1.1500 (EUR 1.3 billion)
Current Spot: 1.1408
The dominant expiry is:
1.1450 (EUR 3.8 billion)
Other major option strikes include:
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1.1400 (EUR 2.5 billion)
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1.1300 (EUR 1.9 billion)
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1.1500 (EUR 1.3 billion)
With current spot positioned inside this cluster of large expiries, EUR/USD is likely to remain pinned within the 1.1400–1.1450 range through the New York cut.
USD/JPY
Option Expiries
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160.00 (USD 1.2 billion)
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161.00 (USD 1.6 billion)
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161.65 (USD 730 million)
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162.80 (USD 530 million)
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163.00 (USD 560 million)
Current Spot: 162.68
The largest expiry is:
161.00 (USD 1.6 billion)
The strike closest to current spot is:
162.80 (USD 530 million)
Accordingly, price action is likely to remain focused around 162.80 in the near term.
If a correction develops, the 161.00 area should become the primary downside target.
USD/CAD
Option Expiries
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1.4200 (USD 520 million)
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1.4210 (USD 770 million)
Current Spot: 1.4210
With spot trading exactly at the larger strike, 1.4210 is expected to serve as the primary pinning level.
AUD/USD
Option Expiry
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0.6900 (AUD 580 million)
Current Spot: 0.6895
The strike is almost perfectly aligned with current spot, making 0.6900 the most likely center of price action.
Overall Market Structure
The key option themes are:
EUR/USD
Thursday
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1.1450 (EUR 3.8 billion)
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1.1400 (EUR 2.5 billion)
USD/JPY
Thursday
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161.00 (USD 1.6 billion)
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162.80 (nearest strike to spot)
USD/CAD
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1.4210 (USD 770 million)
Trading Strategy
EUR/USD
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Wednesday: Watch for a gradual recovery toward 1.1450.
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Thursday: Expect price to remain anchored within the 1.1400–1.1450 option zone.
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Mean-reversion strategies remain preferable to breakout trading.
USD/JPY
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In the short term, monitor 162.80 as the key reference level.
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If a correction develops, expect a move back toward the 161.00 area.
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163.00 becomes the next upside objective if bullish momentum continues.
USD/CAD
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Prioritize the 1.4210 pinning level.
AUD/USD
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A 0.6900 pinning strategy remains the preferred approach.
Summary
The dominant feature of this week's options board is the EUR/USD 1.1450 strike, supported by an exceptionally large EUR 3.8 billion expiry. Combined with another EUR 2.5 billion at 1.1400, Thursday's price action is likely to remain concentrated within the 1.1400–1.1450 range.
For USD/JPY, the nearest strike is 162.80, while a much larger USD 1.6 billion expiry sits at 161.00. This suggests that although the pair may remain supported around the upper 162.00s in the near term, any meaningful correction could target the 161.00 area.
Meanwhile, USD/CAD is expected to remain anchored around 1.4210, while AUD/USD is likely to stay centered near 0.6900 through the New York option cut.
