FX Options Overview | May 13, 2026
■ Spot Levels
EUR/USD：1.1733
USD/JPY：157.72
GBP/USD：1.3530
USD/CHF：0.7804
USD/CAD：1.3693
AUD/USD：0.7232
NZD/USD：0.5939
EUR/GBP：0.8669
■ Wednesday (May 13)
EUR/USD
• 1.1615 (€590M)
• 1.1650 (€730M)
• 1.1700 (€900M)
• 1.1710 (€740M)
• 1.1725 (€820M)
• 1.1805 (€550M)
• 1.1900 (€1.7B)
Current spot: 1.1733
Nearby option concentration sits at:
• 1.1700
• 1.1710
• 1.1725
Into the NY cut, the structure continues to favor:
“Mean reversion toward the low-1.17 area”
On the upside:
• 1.1805
• 1.1900 (€1.7B)
remain large magnets.
If dollar selling accelerates, the market could quickly begin targeting the upper-1.18 to 1.19 region.
However, short term:
• Low-1.17 fixation
• Resistance near 1.1750
remain dominant.
■ USD/JPY
• 156.75 ($680M)
• 157.00 ($1.6B)
• 158.00 ($1.0B)
• 159.50 ($1.9B)
Current spot: 157.72
This setup strongly suggests an intention to keep price trapped between:
157.00
and
158.00
The most natural outcome remains:
“A stable 157–158 range”
On the upside, 159.50 carries a large $1.9B position.
If U.S. yields rise further or dollar buying accelerates:
there is still room for a rapid move toward 159.
However, near term:
• Resistance in the low-158 area
• Pullbacks back toward 157
remain likely.
■ AUD/USD
• 0.7100 ($1.2B)
• 0.7200 ($920M)
Current spot: 0.7232
The closest major magnet remains 0.7200.
Therefore:
“Reversion back toward the 0.72 area”
remains the base scenario.
However:
0.7100 ($1.2B)
is a relatively large downside structure.
If the market experiences:
• Equity weakness
• China concerns
• Broad dollar strength
AUD/USD downside acceleration could become significant.
■ EUR/GBP
• 0.8675 (€710M)
Current spot: 0.8669
Very close proximity.
Therefore:
“A pull toward 0.8675”
remains the most natural path.
Into the NY cut, the pair may converge toward:
0.8665–0.8675.
■ Thursday (May 14)
EUR/USD
• 1.1600 (€1.3B)
• 1.1650 (€920M)
• 1.1660 (€810M)
• 1.1675 (€760M)
• 1.1680 (€970M)
• 1.1700 (€1.8B)
• 1.1750 (€1.4B)
• 1.1755 (€530M)
• 1.1780 (€630M)
• 1.1785 (€1.1B)
• 1.1795 (€1.4B)
• 1.1800 (€1.8B)
• 1.1820 (€520M)
• 1.1825 (€1.0B)
• 1.1850 (€1.5B)
Current spot: 1.1733
Thursday shows an exceptionally dense option structure.
Most notable levels:
• 1.1700 (€1.8B)
• 1.1750 (€1.4B)
• 1.1800 (€1.8B)
• 1.1850 (€1.5B)
The market appears heavily focused on maintaining:
“A fixed 1.17–1.18 range”
Typical price behavior may involve:
• Selling down toward 1.1700
• Rebounding toward 1.1750
• Getting pulled toward 1.1800
This is likely to become an environment dominated more by:
“Option magnet behavior”
than directional trend trading.
■ USD/JPY
• 156.00 ($1.6B)
• 158.00 ($880M)
• 158.30 ($1.0B)
• 158.35 ($530M)
• 158.40 ($680M)
Current spot: 157.72
For Thursday:
“The pull toward 158 appears slightly dominant.”
Especially given the concentration between:
158.00–158.40
If USD/JPY remains firm, a:
“158 test”
becomes increasingly likely.
However:
156.00 ($1.6B)
still remains a significant downside magnet.
As a result:
the pair may continue stabilizing inside a 157–158 range.
■ GBP/USD
• 1.3570 (£710M)
Current spot: 1.3530
Single isolated placement.
Therefore:
“A pull toward 1.3570”
may function relatively cleanly.
■ USD/CAD
• 1.3650 ($660M)
Current spot: 1.3693
While not as massive as the previous structure,
the pull toward 1.3650 remains active.
If oil prices stabilize:
USD/CAD downside toward 1.3650 becomes a natural scenario.
■ AUD/USD
• 0.7200 ($740M)
• 0.7350 ($1.7B)
Current spot: 0.7232
The standout structure here is:
0.7350 ($1.7B)
Short term, 0.7200 reversion pressure remains dominant.
However, if markets shift toward:
• Equity rallies
• China optimism
• Dollar weakness
AUD/USD could rapidly squeeze toward the 0.73 region.
■ NZD/USD
• 0.5970 ($580M)
Current spot: 0.5939
Because of the close placement:
a pull toward 0.5970 remains likely.
■ EUR/GBP
• 0.8705 (€530M)
Current spot: 0.8669
If euro strength continues:
the pair may attempt another move toward 0.87.
■ Overall Market Structure
The most notable feature this week is:
the extremely dense EUR/USD option structure.
Particularly on Thursday:
• 1.1700
• 1.1750
• 1.1800
• 1.1850
all carry major option concentrations.
This creates a market highly vulnerable to:
“Range fixation + mean reversion”
USD/JPY also continues showing a classic option-range structure:
• 157–158 fixation
• Resistance in the 158s
• Support in the 156s
AUD/USD currently reflects a two-stage structure:
• Short-term fixation near 0.72
• Medium-term upside potential toward 0.7350
■ Trading Strategy
EUR/USD
• Prioritize 1.17–1.18 range reversion
• Be cautious chasing breakouts
• Focus on NY-cut mean reversion
USD/JPY
• Maintain 157–158 range bias
• 158 area likely heavy resistance
• Intervention concerns remain active
AUD/USD
• Maintain awareness of 0.72 fixation
• Watch for 0.73 upside risk during risk-on flows
USD/CAD
• Continue monitoring 1.3650 mean reversion
■ Summary
Into the second half of the week, the market structure increasingly favors:
“Temporary event-driven moves”
↓
“Then mean reversion back toward the NY cut”
Especially in EUR/USD,
option-defense flows may increasingly trigger:
• Failed trend continuation
• Choppy two-way trading
USD/JPY is likely to remain centered around 157–158,
while AUD/USD remains structurally centered near 0.72.
