■ Daily Overview
Today’s market is entirely driven by Iran-related developments.
Markets remain skeptical about a ceasefire agreement,
while President Trump’s hawkish stance — including threats of infrastructure strikes — continues to sustain tensions.
👉 Core structure:
- War-driven USD buying
- Rising oil prices
- Highly unstable market conditions
WTI crude briefly surged to the $115 range, reinforcing:
👉 Inflation concerns → Rising US yields → USD strength
■ FX Market Developments
Price action is highly sensitive to headlines:
- USD/JPY: 159.47 → rebound to around 159.70
- EUR/USD: 1.1576 → fell below 1.1550
👉 Even a single “explosion” headline triggers immediate USD buying
■ Key Focus (Most Important)
🕒 Iran response deadline: April 8, 00:00 UTC
Markets are becoming extremely nervous heading into this deadline.
■ Scenario Outlook
① No agreement / escalation
→ Oil rises further
→ War-driven USD buying accelerates
→ USD/JPY may break above 160
② Partial agreement / ceasefire signals
→ Oil drops sharply
→ USD corrects (risk of sharp downside)
③ Mixed/conflicting information (most realistic)
→ Highly volatile, two-way market
■ Strategy Points
- Prioritize news over economic data
- Keep positions light
- Trade with sudden volatility in mind
■ Summary
The current market is:
👉 “Driven by war, not economics”
- USD is strong, but not one-directional
- The key lies in the April 8 deadline
■ Final Take
👉 What matters most now:
Speed of reaction and risk management
